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Modeling agricultural production risk and the adaptation to climate change

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  • Robert Finger
  • Stéphanie Schmid

Abstract

An approach that integrates biophysical simulations in an economic model is used to analyze the impact of climate change on Swiss corn and winter wheat production. Adaptation options such as changes in sowing dates, changes in production intensity, and the adoption of irrigation farming are considered in the model. By carrying out sensitivity analysis with different scenarios, we find farmers’ adaptation actions and crop yeilds to be very sensitive to both climate change and output prices. Moreover, our model results show that simple adaptation measures are sufficient to generate higher and less variable crop yields in the future.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Agricultural Finance Review.

Volume (Year): 68 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 25-41

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Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:68:y:2008:i:1:p:25-41

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Related research

Keywords: Biophysical modeling; Climate change; Crop production functions; Crop yields; Robust estimation; Yield variation;

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References

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  1. Fuhrer, Jurg & Beniston, Martin & Calanca, Pierluigi & Torriani, Daniele Simone, 2007. "Alternative Hedging Strategies in Maize Production to Cope with Climate Variability and Change," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9275, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Neil R. Miller, 2006. "Is Site-Specific Yield Response Consistent over Time? Does It Pay?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(2), pages 471-483.
  3. Murat Isik & Madhu Khanna, 2003. "Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences, and Adoption of Site-Specific Technologies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 305-317.
  4. Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 9-21, December.
  5. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & Barry K. Goodwin & Allen Featherstone, 2006. "Effects of decoupling on the mean and variability of output," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 269-288, September.
  6. Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy," Agricultural Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 24(1), December.
  7. John M. Antle & Susan M. Capalbo, 2001. "Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 389-401.
  8. Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
  9. Robert Finger & Werner Hediger, 2008. "The Application of Robust Regression to a Production Function Comparison – the Example of Swiss Corn," IED Working paper 08-02, IED Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ines Kapphan & Pierluigi Calanca & Annelie Holzkaemper, 2012. "Climate Change, Weather Insurance Design and Hedging Effectiveness," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 286-317, April.
  2. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Nitrogen use and the effects of nitrogen taxation under consideration of production and price risks," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 13-20.
  3. Finger, Robert & Gerwig, Claude N., 2007. "The Impact Of Climate Change On The Profitability Of Site Specific Technologies," 47th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 26-28, 2007 7574, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  4. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Ökonomische Grundfragen der Klimaanpassung: Umrisse eines neuen Forschungsprogramms," UFZ Reports 02/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).
  5. Finger, Robert, 2007. "Evidence of slowing yield growth – the example of Swiss cereal yields," MPRA Paper 9475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Ken Mix & Vicente Lopes & Walter Rast, 2012. "Growing season expansion and related changes in monthly temperature and growing degree days in the Inter-Montane Desert of the San Luis Valley, Colorado," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 723-744, October.
  7. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Fundamental questions on the economics of climate adaptation: Outlines of a new research programme," UFZ Reports 05/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).
  8. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Modeling the sensitivity of agricultural water use to price variability and climate change—An application to Swiss maize production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 135-143.
  9. Lehmann, Niklaus & Finger, Robert & Klein, Tommy & Calanca, Pierluigi & Walter, Achim, 2012. "Adapting Towards Climate Change: A Bioeconomic Analysis of Winterwheat and Grain Maize," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126483, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  10. Finger, Robert, 2011. "Reductions of Agricultural Nitrogen Use Under Consideration of Production and Price Risks," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114356, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  11. Markus Lips & Robert Finger & Pierluigi Calanca, 2008. "Potenzielle Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Risiko und Kosten der Weizenernte," Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture, Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 1(1), pages 219-323.
  12. Lehmann, Niklaus & Finger, Robert & Klein, Tommy & Calanca, Pierluigi & Walter, Achim, 2013. "Adapting crop management practices to climate change: Modeling optimal solutions at the field scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 55-65.
  13. Bardsley, Douglas K. & Bardsley, Annette M., 2014. "Organising for socio-ecological resilience: The roles of the mountain farmer cooperative Genossenschaft Gran Alpin in Graubünden, Switzerland," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 11-21.

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