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La crisis financiera internacional. Ocho lecciones de y para América Latina

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  • Rojas-Suarez, Liliana

    (Center Global Development)

Abstract

The international financial crisis of 2008-09 exposed the strengths and weaknesses of the current paradigm of development in Latina America, a paradigm based on liberalized capital accounts and significantly improved macroeconomic conditions. This paper presents lessons derived from the crisis, not only for the region it self, but also for other developing countries that might seek economic growth in the context of greater integration to the international capital markets. Some of the lessons are not new but have been reinforced by the crisis, such as Latin America’s imperative need for export diversification (not only in products but in partners). Other lessons break with longstanding myths about the region, such as its inability to undertake counter-cyclical policies —at least on the monetary side. Yet other lessons reflect new developments in the current growth paradigm, such as a renewed assessment of (1) the relative roles of foreign and domestic banks in shielding the financial system against external shocks and (2) the potential costs of adopting blanket international financial regulations that do not account for a country’s degree of development. Taken together, the lessons in this paper bring a new sense of optimism for growth in Latin America.// La crisis financiera internacional del 2008-2009 puso de manifiesto las fortalezas y debilidades del paradigma prevaleciente en materia de desarrollo en América Latina. Éste se basa en una cuenta de capitales liberada que a su vez ha mejorado de manera importante las condiciones macroeconómicas. Este artículo proporciona lecciones provenientes de la crisis, no solamente para la región, sino para otros países en desarrollo que buscan conseguir crecimiento económico en un contexto de mayor integración a los mercados internacionales de capital. Algunas de las lecciones no son nuevas pero han sido reforzadas con la crisis, como la necesidad de que América Latina diversifique sus exportaciones (no sólo de productos sino de socios comerciales). Otras lecciones desmitifican otros elementos, como por ejemplo la imposibilidad de aplicar políticas contracíclicas, al menos del lado monetario. Otras lecciones incluyen i) el papel relativo de la banca nacional y extranjera como amortiguadores de los choques financieros externos, y ii) el costo potencial de adoptar regulaciones financieras internacionales que no tomen en consideración el desarrollo de cada país. Tomadas en conjunto, las lecciones arrojan un nuevo sentido de optimismo para el crecimiento de América Latina.Keywords: América Latina, crisis financiera, mercados de capital

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Econónomico.

Volume (Year): LXXX (1) (2013)
Issue (Month): 317 (enero-marzo)
Pages: 5-39

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:80:y:2013:i:317:p:5-39

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