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¿Por qué las reformas económicas de México no han generado crecimiento?

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Author Info

  • Kehoe, Timothy J.

    (Universidad de Minnesota, Banco de la Reserva Federal de Minneapolis y NBER)

  • Ruhl, Kim J.

    (Universidad de Nueva York)

Abstract

Following its opening to trade and foreign investment in the mid-1980s, Mexico’s economic growth has been modest at best, particularly in comparison with that of China. Comparing these countries and reviewing the literature, we conclude that the relation between openness and growth is not a simple one. Using standard trade theory, we find that Mexico has gained from trade, and by some measures, more so than China. We sketch out a theory in which developing countries can grow faster than the United States by reforming. As a country becomes richer, this sort of catch-up becomes more difficult. Absent continuing reforms, Chinese growth is likely to slow down sharply, perhaps leaving China at a level less than Mexico’s real GDP per working-age person.// Después de su apertura al comercio internacional y la inversión extranjera a mediados del decenio de los ochenta, el crecimiento económico de México ha sido, a lo sumo, modesto, particularmente en comparación al de China. Al comparar estos países y revisar la bibliografía, concluimos que la relación entre la apertura y el crecimiento no es en absoluto sencilla. Por medio de la teoría estándar del comercio encontramos que México se ha beneficiado del intercambio comercial y, según algunos indicadores, incluso más que China. Esbozamos una teoría en la que los países en desarrollo pueden crecer más rápidamente que los Estados Unidos mediante la aplicación de reformas. A medida que un país aumenta su riqueza, este crecimiento compensatorio se torna más difícil. En ausencia de reformas frecuentes, es probable que el crecimiento de China disminuya acusadamente, quizá hasta el punto en que su PIB real por persona en edad laboral caiga a niveles inferiores a los de México.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Econónomico.

Volume (Year): LXXVIII (3) (2011)
Issue (Month): 311 (julio-septiembre)
Pages: 491-523

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:78:y:2011:i:311:p:491-523

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Keywords: reformas; crecimiento económico; México; China;

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