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Análisis del crecimiento en las manufacturas mexicanas. El problema de los datos perdidos (1929-1934)

Author

Listed:
  • Angulo Palmero, Jesús Humberto

    (Facultad de Economía, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla)

  • Guillermo Peón, Sylvia Beatriz

    (Facultad de Economía, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla)

Abstract

The present paper focuses on the potential bias in growth estimation generated by the problem of missing data (or data truncation) due to changes in census survey policy. The analysis will help to ascertain which sub-sectors in manufacturing were experiencing growth to show evidence supporting the hypothesis of a positive growth rate in manufacturing as a whole during the period 1929-1934. We particularly analyze the performance of the Mexican manufacturing industry at sub-sector level of disaggregation and during the period 1929-1934 considering that census policy was not homogeneous for the two censuses of interest (and for subsequent ones). When any data set is truncated, this can generate bias in the estimation process. However, the bias in estimates based on these data sets will depend on how important the proportion of missing data is. Hence, one of the main tasks on this paper is to examine how important the missing data problem is for each sector of Mexican manufacturing in order to shed light on the reliability of Value Added growth rates estimates which are calculated in this paper.// El presente artículo se enfoca en el sesgo potencial en la estimación de crecimiento, generado por el problema de datos perdidos (o datos truncados) como consecuencia de cambios en la política censal. El análisis ayudará a indagar cuáles subsectores en la manufactura experimentaron crecimiento para mostrar pruebas que apoyen la hipótesis de una tasa de crecimiento positiva en el sector manufacturero completo durante el periodo 1929-1934. En particular analizamos el desempeño de la industria manufacturera mexicana desagregada por subsectores y durante el período 1929-1934 considerando que la política censal no fue homogénea para los dos censos de interés (y para los subsecuentes). Cuando un conjunto de datos es truncado, esto puede generar sesgo en el proceso de estimación. Sin embargo, el sesgo de estimaciones basadas en estos datos dependerá de qué tan importante es la proporción de datos perdidos. Por lo tanto, una de las principales tareas en este artículo es examinar qué tan importante es el problema de datos perdidos para cada sector de la industria manufacturera mexicana de tal manera que esto proporcione luz en cuanto a la confiabilidad de las estimaciones de tasas de crecimiento en valor agregado que se calculan en el trabajo.

Suggested Citation

  • Angulo Palmero, Jesús Humberto & Guillermo Peón, Sylvia Beatriz, 2008. "Análisis del crecimiento en las manufacturas mexicanas. El problema de los datos perdidos (1929-1934)," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(298), pages 471-518, abril-jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:75:y:2008:i:298:p:471-518
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v75i298.409
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    value added growth; growth in mexican manufacturing; missing data problem; crecimiento del valor agregado; crecimiento de la industria manufacturera mexicana; problema de datos perdidos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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