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Efecto de cambios legislativos en las pensiones de jubilación contributivas. El caso español

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Author Info

  • Balmaseda, Manuel

    (Servicio de Estudios BBVA)

  • Blázquez, Jorge

    (Oficina Económica del Presidente de Gobierno)

  • Martín-Moreno, J.M.

    (Universidad de Vigo)

  • Tello, Patry

    (Banco de España)

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    Abstract

    In this paper we evaluate the future evolution of the contributed pensions for the Spanish economy through the period 2002-2050. We specify a model that contains the evolution of the fundamental variables of this expenditure. The disaggregation of the total expenditure of the contributed pensions allows us to analyze in detail the features of this variable, as well as, to simulate more precisely the impact of legislative changes.// El objetivo de este artículo es cuantificar para la economía española la evolución futura del gasto en pensiones de jubilación contributivas en el horizonte 2002-2050. Para ello se especifica un modelo en el que dicho gasto es función de la pensión media de las altas, de las bajas, de los pensionistas comunes, del número de pensionistas en cada uno de estos colectivos y del complemento de garantía de mínimos. La descomposición del gasto total en pensiones de jubilación en estos tres grupos permite analizar con más detalle cuál de ellos contribuirá en mayor medida a determinar la evolución futura del gasto, así como simular con mayor precisión el efecto de cambios legislativos.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

    Volume (Year): LXXIII (3) (2006)
    Issue (Month): 291 (julio-septiembre)
    Pages: 611-636

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    Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:73:y:2006:i:291:p:611-636

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    Related research

    Keywords: pensiones contributivas; evolución demográfica; cambios normativos; sistemas de pensiones.;

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