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Innovación y caos determinista: un modelo predictivo para Europa

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  • Jesús Manuel Plaza Llorente

    (UNED. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa y Contabilidad)

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    Abstract

    the economy is a deterministic chaotic system, in line with the characteristics of aperiodicity, predictability and dependence sensitive to initial conditions. The 1990-2010 dataset for the HDI (Human Development Index) published by the UNDP is used to model the behaviour of the level of development of the economies of EU-27, under the hypothesis that that level has the power to explain their position as regards innovation in 2010, represented by the Innovation Union Scoreboard (IUS). Significant comparisons are made between the positions on innovation of the UK and Germany as the prototype economies for stylised models of innovation, to show how the laws of deterministic chaos can be used to reinterpret these phenomena.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government in its journal EKONOMIAZ.

    Volume (Year): 80 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 02 ()
    Pages: 260-289

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    Handle: RePEc:ekz:ekonoz:2012212

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    Related research

    Keywords: deterministic chaos; human development index; innovation index;

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    References

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    1. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Escribano, Alvaro, 2010. "Knowledge spillovers in US patents: A dynamic patent intensity model with secret common innovation factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 14-32, November.
    2. Mikel Navarro Arancegui, 2009. "Los sistemas regionales de innovación. Una revisión crítica," EKONOMIAZ, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 70(01), pages 25-59.
    3. Vincent Frigant & Damien Talbot, 2005. "Technological Determinism and Modularity: Lessons from a Comparison between Aircraft and Auto Industries in Europe," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 337-355.
    4. Dosi, Giovanni, 1982. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 147-162, June.
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