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Foreign Direct Investment with Hysteresis: Short Term Rescue or Long Term Sentence?

Author

Listed:
  • Saziye Gazioglu

    (Department of Economics, University of Aberdeen, U.K.)

  • W. David McCausland

    (Department of Economics, University of Aberdeen, U.K.)

Abstract

Foreign direct investment is often regarded by countries with balance of payments problems as a potential source of salvation. The consequences of a rise in foreign direct investment are analysed within a two-country, four-product, six-asset small macro model and is shown to have two distinct and offsetting effects. The first effect improves the balance of payments and prevents devaluation. The second effect depreciates the real exchange rate and raises the return on capital. In both cases net international debt increases. If foreign direct investment is withdrawn, a consequence of there being multiple equilibria in the model is that the domestic country may get stuck in a debt-trap. Similarly hysteric behaviour is displayed by the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Saziye Gazioglu & W. David McCausland, 1998. "Foreign Direct Investment with Hysteresis: Short Term Rescue or Long Term Sentence?," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 2(1), pages 29-46, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekn:ekonom:v:2:y:1998:i:1:p:29-46
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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