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Regression Costs Fall, Mining Ratios Rise, Publication Bias Looms, and Techniques Get Fancier: Reflections on Some Trends in Empirical Macroeconomics

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  • Martin Paldam

Abstract

The costs of running a regression are falling rapidly, perhaps by 10-15 percent per year. Considerations of costs and benefits suggest that this will cause an increase in the mining ratio, that is, the ratio of the number of regressions made to the number published. An individual researcher’s full set of the regressions made, and the ratio itself, are private knowledge of that researcher—but informal polls suggest that the average ratio is now well above 25. The wave of meta-studies of published results allows some intuition about the consequences of a rising mining ratio. One consequence would be that publication bias rises as well. I suggest that the rising mining ratio is mitigated somewhat by the rapid rise in the number and sophistication of econometric techniques, even though it appears that the marginal productivity of new techniques is falling.

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  • Martin Paldam, 2013. "Regression Costs Fall, Mining Ratios Rise, Publication Bias Looms, and Techniques Get Fancier: Reflections on Some Trends in Empirical Macroeconomics," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 10(2), pages 136-156, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ejw:journl:v:10:y:2013:i:2:p:136-156
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos & Margaret Giles & Jost Heckemeyer & Robert Johnston & Patrice Laroche & Jon Nelson & Martin Paldam & Jacques Poot & Geoff Pugh & Randall Rosenberger & Katja Rost, 2013. "Meta-analysis of economics research reporting guidelines," Post-Print hal-02137661, HAL.
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    4. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The Aid Effectiveness Literature: The Sad Results Of 40 Years Of Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 433-461, July.
    5. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2005. "Aid Effectiveness on Growth. A Meta Study," Economics Working Papers 2005-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2013. "The Robust Result in Meta-analysis of Aid Effectiveness: A Response to Mekasha and Tarp," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 584-587, April.
    7. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    8. Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha & Finn Tarp, 2013. "Aid and Growth: What Meta-Analysis Reveals," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 564-583, April.
    9. Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha & Finn Tarp, 2013. "Aid and Growth: What Meta-Analysis Reveals," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 564-583, April.
    10. Doucouliagos, Hristos & Paldam, Martin, 2011. "The ineffectiveness of development aid on growth: An update," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 399-404, June.
    11. Mike Felgenhauer & Elisabeth Schulte, 2014. "Strategic Private Experimentation," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 74-105, November.
    12. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos & Margaret Giles & Jost H. Heckemeyer & Robert J. Johnston & Patrice Laroche & Jon P. Nelson & Martin Paldam & Jacques Poot & Geoff Pugh & Randall S. Rosenberger & , 2013. "Meta-Analysis Of Economics Research Reporting Guidelines," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 390-394, April.
    13. Chris Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2013. "Are All Economic Facts Greatly Exaggerated? Theory Competition And Selectivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 316-339, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paldam, Martin, 2015. "Meta-analysis in a nutshell: Techniques and general findings," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-14.
    2. Paldam, Martin, 2018. "A model of the representative economist, as researcher and policy advisor," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 5-15.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regression costs; meta-analysis; publication bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A14 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Sociology of Economics
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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