Cyclical synchronization in the EMU along the financial crisis: An interpretation of the conflicting signals
AbstractWe analyze how cyclical synchronization in the EMU evolved since the onset of the current financial crisis. The standard measures of cyclical correlation suggest that while the cycle of the euro area became more aligned with the cycles of other developed economies, the EMU itself apparently entered into a phase of cyclical divergence. We show that as a matter of fact the bulk of the member states remained closely aligned, and the seeming decline in synchronization is due to a few countries decoupling from the euro area. Next we present empirical evidence that the foundations that explain the evolution of the national cycles against the EMU aggregate through the crisis were already latent in 2007. Greece and Ireland deviate from the general pattern, the former because of its loose fiscal policy all along the period 2000-2007, and the latter due to the flexibility of its labor market.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Europa Grande in its journal European Journal of Government and Economics.
Volume (Year): 1 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
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international business cycles; euro area; cyclical convergence; asymmetric responses;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
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