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A Test of Fischer's Theory of Monetary Misperceptions and the Business Cycle in the Presence of Long-Term Contracts

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  • Charles W. Bischoff

    (State University of New York, Binghamton)

  • Steven C. Hine

    (State University of New York, Binghamton)

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    Abstract

    This article uses multi-period ex ante anticipations of money supply growth to estimate the parameters of a model, suggested by Stanley Fischer, in which money affects real variables only through multi-period errors in anticipations. This model is tested against an alternative, first evaluated empirically by Robert Barro, in which money affects real variables only through single period errors in anticipations. The two models are compared using the "P" test procedure for non-nested models suggested by Davidson and MacKinnon. The small sample properties of the test are unknown. Random experiments are performed to approximate these properties. On the basis of estimated small scale distributions, the Fischer model rejects the Barro model at conventional levels, but is not rejected by it.

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    File URL: http://college.holycross.edu/RePEc/eej/Archive/Volume18/V18N1P99_110.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Eastern Economic Association in its journal Eastern Economic Journal.

    Volume (Year): 18 (1992)
    Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
    Pages: 99-110

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    Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:18:y:1992:i:1:p:99-110

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    Postal: c/o Dr. Alexandre Olbrecht, The Anisfield School of Business 205, Ramapo College, 505 Ramapo Valley Road, Ramapo, New Jersey 07430, USA
    Phone: (201) 684-7346
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    Web page: http://www.ramapo.edu/eea/journal.html
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    Related research

    Keywords: Business Cycles; Cycle; Monetary; Money; Supply;

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    1. Pesaran, M H, 1982. "Comparison of Local Power of Alternative Tests of Non-Nested Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1287-1305, September.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    3. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
    4. Pesaran, M H, 1974. "On the General Problem of Model Selection," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 153-71, April.
    5. Godfrey, L. G. & Pesaran, M. H., 1983. "Tests of non-nested regression models: Small sample adjustments and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January.
    6. Carns, Frederick & Lombra, Raymond, 1983. "Rational Expectations and Short-Run Neutrality: A Reexamination of the Role of Anticipated Money Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 639-43, November.
    7. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Another View," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
    8. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
    9. Bernanke, Ben & Bohn, Henning & Reiss, Peter C., 1988. "Alternative non-nested specification tests of time-series investment models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 293-326, March.
    10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1981. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 781-93, May.
    11. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1979. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-44, December.
    13. Nichols, Donald A & Small, David H & Webster, Charles E, Jr, 1983. "Why Interest Rates Rise When an Unexpectedly Large Money Stock Is Announced," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 383-88, June.
    14. Rush, Mark & Waldo, Douglas, 1988. "On the Policy Ineffectiveness Proposition and a Keynesian Alternative," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 498-503, June.
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