Methods for forecasting numbers of patent applications at the European Patent Office

Accurate forecasting of numbers of patent application filings is crucial for resource planning at the European Patent Office (EPO) and other patent offices. As a supranational office, the EPO usually attracts Subsequent Filings rather than the priority forming First Filings. This fact needs to be incorporated in forecasting models for EPO filings and a two stage mechanistic framework is proposed. The forecasting methods that have been used routinely at the EPO have been: trend analyses; a transfer model that uses First Filings as an indicator of EPO filings one year later; and regular surveys of applicants to determine their future intentions. Controlling Office (CO) carries out the basic forecasting exercise on an annual basis as an input to discussions on the formation of the EPO Budget. A Research Programme has been set up for the improvement of the patenting methodology. Five projects under the programme have achieved mixed degrees of success up to this stage. A new challenge for the forecasting team is to accommodate the need to make forecasts for each of 14 Joint Clusters, based on the different technical areas in which patent applications are made to the EPO. The EPO participates in a Trilateral Statistical Working Group (TSWG), together with representatives of the Japanese Patent Office (JPO) and the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). This group examines and compares forecasting techniques, and seeks to find models for world-wide patent application patterns across borders. The EPO also has a duty to review or participate in more general studies of the patenting system, in order to advise EPO management on strategic issues regarding the environment of patenting.