IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v58y2014icp67-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?

Author

Listed:
  • Edward, Peter
  • Sumner, Andy

Abstract

Estimates of the historic and future scale and location or “geography” of global poverty by income/expenditure have a long and contentious history. In recent projections made on global poverty, methods and assumptions vary so widely it is impossible to compare studies in a systematic way even on their estimates of current poverty. In light of this, we discuss the methodological issues arising and use a custom-built model to provide a new, consistent set of long-run estimates of global poverty to show the impact of different methods and assumptions on the scale and location of global poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward, Peter & Sumner, Andy, 2014. "Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-82.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:58:y:2014:i:c:p:67-82
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.12.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X13002933
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.12.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephan Klasen & Simon Lange, 2011. "Getting Progress Right: Measuring Progress Towards the MDGs Against Historical Trends," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 87, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 20 Feb 2012.
    2. Anand, Sudhir & Kanbur, S. M. Ravi, 1991. "International poverty projections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 617, The World Bank.
    3. repec:pri:rpdevs:deaton_price_indexes_inequality_and_the_measurement_of_world_poverty_aer. is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Angus Deaton, 2005. "Measuring Poverty in a Growing World (or Measuring Growth in a Poor World)," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(1), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Luis López-Calva & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2014. "A vulnerability approach to the definition of the middle class," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 12(1), pages 23-47, March.
    6. Ravallion, Martin, 1996. "Issues in Measuring and Modelling Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1328-1343, September.
    7. Martin Ravallion, 2013. "How Long Will It Take to Lift One Billion People Out of Poverty?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 28(2), pages 139-158, August.
    8. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 2001. "Can the World Cut Poverty in Half? How Policy Reform and Effective Aid Can Meet International Development Goals," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1787-1802, November.
    9. World Bank, 2007. "Global Economic Prospects 2007 : Managing the Next Wave of Globalization," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7157, December.
    10. Lant Pritchett, 2006. "Who is Not Poor? Dreaming of a World Truly Free of Poverty," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 1-23.
    11. Misselhorn, Mark & Klasen, Stephan, 2006. "Determinants of the Growth Semi-Elasticity of Poverty Reduction," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 15, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    12. Lucia Hanmer & Felix Naschold, 2000. "Attaining the International Development Targets: Will Growth Be Enough?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 11-36, March.
    13. Jean Olson Lanjouw & Peter Lanjouw, 2001. "How to Compare Apples And Oranges: Poverty Measurement Based on Different Definitions of Consumption," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(1), pages 25-42, March.
    14. Surjit Bhalla, 2002. "Imagine There's No Country: Poverty, Inequality, and Growth in the Era of Globalization," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 348, October.
    15. Edward, Peter, 2006. "Examining Inequality: Who Really Benefits from Global Growth?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1667-1695, October.
    16. Anthony Atkinson & Thomas Piketty, 2010. "Top Incomes : A Global Perspective," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754875, HAL.
    17. Christoph Lakner & Branko Milanovic, 2016. "Global Income Distribution: From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 30(2), pages 203-232.
    18. Branko Milanovic, 2012. "Global inequality recalculated and updated: the effect of new PPP estimates on global inequality and 2005 estimates," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, March.
    19. Sergio Tezanos V�zquez & Andy Sumner, 2013. "Revisiting the Meaning of Development: A Multidimensional Taxonomy of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1728-1745, December.
    20. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "The World Distribution of Income (estimated from Individual Country Distributions)," NBER Working Papers 8933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Angus Deaton, 2010. "Price Indexes, Inequality, and the Measurement of World Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 5-34, March.
    22. Sumner, Andy, 2012. "Where Do The Poor Live?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 865-877.
    23. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2010. "The Developing World is Poorer than We Thought, But No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1577-1625.
    24. Martin Ravallion, 2003. "Measuring Aggregate Welfare in Developing Countries: How Well Do National Accounts and Surveys Agree?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 645-652, August.
    25. repec:pri:rpdevs:presidential%20address%2017january%202010%20all.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Chakrangi Lenagala & Rati Ram, 2010. "Growth elasticity of poverty: estimates from new data," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(12), pages 923-932, October.
    27. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2003. "Halving Global Poverty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
    28. Atkinson, A. B. & Piketty, Thomas (ed.), 2010. "Top Incomes: A Global Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199286898, Decembrie.
    29. Martin Ravallion & Gaurav Datt & Dominique van de Walle, 1991. "Quantifying Absolute Poverty In The Developing World," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 37(4), pages 345-361, December.
    30. Hillebrand, Evan, 2008. "The Global Distribution of Income in 2050," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 727-740, May.
    31. Todd Moss and Ben Leo, 2011. "IDA at 65: Heading Toward Retirement or a Fragile Lease on Life? - Working Paper 246," Working Papers 246, Center for Global Development.
    32. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "How Have the World's Poorest Fared since the Early 1980s?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 19(2), pages 141-169.
    33. Sanjay G. Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2007. "Has World Poverty Really Fallen?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(3), pages 484-502, September.
    34. Angus Deaton & Alan Heston, 2010. "Understanding PPPs and PPP-Based National Accounts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-35, October.
    35. Frank-Oliver Aldenhoff, 2007. "Are economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund politically biased? A public choice analysis," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 239-260, September.
    36. Ravallion, Martin, 2012. "Benchmarking global poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6205, The World Bank.
    37. Thomas Goda, 2013. "Changes in income inequality from a global perspective: An overview," Working Papers PKWP1303, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    38. repec:pri:rpdevs:presidential%20address%2017january%202010%20all is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Sudhir Anand & Paul Segal, 2008. "What Do We Know about Global Income Inequality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 57-94, March.
    40. Anton Korinek & Johan Mistiaen & Martin Ravallion, 2006. "Survey nonresponse and the distribution of income," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 33-55, April.
    41. Dhongde, Shatakshee & Minoiu, Camelia, 2013. "Global Poverty Estimates: A Sensitivity Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
    42. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav & van de Walle, Dominique, 1991. "Quantifying Absolute Poverty in the Developing World," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 37(4), pages 345-361, December.
    43. Steve Dowrick & Muhammad Akmal, 2005. "Contradictory Trends In Global Income Inequality: A Tale Of Two Biases," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(2), pages 201-229, June.
    44. Maxim Pinkovskiy & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2009. "Parametric Estimations of the World Distribution of Income," NBER Working Papers 15433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Homi Kharas, 2010. "The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 285, OECD Publishing.
    46. Duangkamon Chotikapanich & D. S. Prasada Rao & William E. Griffiths & Vicar Valencia, 2007. "Global Inequality: Recent Evidence and Trends," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2007-01, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jaime Lara Lara & Fabian Mendez-Ramos, 2021. "Poverty vulnerability: The role of poverty lines in the post-pandemic era," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(4), pages 2690-2696.
    2. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiova & Mthuli Ncube, 2015. "Working Paper 223 - Eliminating Extreme Poverty in Africa: Trends, Policies and the Role of International Organizations," Working Paper Series 2163, African Development Bank.
    3. Azzarri, Carlo & Signorelli, Sara, 2020. "Climate and poverty in Africa South of the Sahara," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2015. "New estimates of global poverty and inequality: How much difference do price data," Working Papers 365, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    5. Douch, Mustapha & Edwards, Huw & Landman, Todd & Mallick, Sushanta, 2022. "Aid effectiveness: Human rights as a conditionality measure," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Andy Sumner, 2016. "The world's two new middles Growth, precarity, structural change, and the limitations of the special case," WIDER Working Paper Series 034, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Dennis Wichelns, 2015. "Achieving Water and Food Security in 2050: Outlook, Policies, and Investments," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-33, April.
    8. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    9. Zorobabel Bicabaa & Zuzana Brixiová & Mthuli Ncube, 2017. "Can Extreme Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa be Eliminated by 2030?," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 19(2), pages 93-110.
    10. Andy Sumner, 2016. "The world's two new middles: Growth, precarity, structural change, and the limitations of the special case," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-34, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Rory Horner & David Hulme, 2017. "Converging divergence? Unpacking the new geography of 21st century global development," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 102017, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    12. Amita Majumder & Ranjan Ray & Sattwik Santra, 2016. "Global and Country Poverty Rates, Welfare Rankings of the Regions and Purchasing Power Parities: How Robust Are the Results?," Monash Economics Working Papers 11-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    13. Clément, Matthieu & Rougier, Eric & Berrou, Jean-Philippe & Combarnous, François & Darbon, Dominique, 2022. "“What’s in the middle”: Scratching beneath the surface of the middle class(es) in Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, Turkey and Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    14. Zorobabel Bicaba & Zuzana Brixiova & Mthuli Ncube, 2016. "Eliminating Extreme Poverty in Africa: Trends, Policies and the Role of International Organizations," SALDRU Working Papers 170, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    15. Garenne, Michel, 2015. "Traditional Wealth, Modern Goods, and Demographic Behavior in Rural Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 267-276.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Future of Global Poverty in a Multi-Speed World: New Estimates of Scale, Location and Cost," Working Papers 111, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    2. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2014. "The Poor, the Prosperous and the ‘Inbetweeners’: A Fresh Perspective on Global Society, Inequality and Growth," Working Papers 122, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    3. Facundo Alvaredo & Leonardo Gasparini, 2013. "Recent Trends in Inequality and Poverty in Developing Countries," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0151, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    4. Moatsos Michail, 2016. "Global Absolute Poverty: Behind the Veil of Dollars," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-28, December.
    5. Dhongde, Shatakshee & Minoiu, Camelia, 2013. "Global Poverty Estimates: A Sensitivity Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2015. "New estimates of global poverty and inequality: How much difference do price data," Working Papers 365, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    7. Pinkovskiy, Maxim L., 2013. "World welfare is rising: Estimation using nonparametric bounds on welfare measures," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 176-195.
    8. Crombrugghe, D.P.I. de & Szirmai, A. & Bluhm, R., 2014. "Poor trends: The pace of poverty reduction after the Millennium Development Agenda," MERIT Working Papers 2014-006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Clare Leaver & Paul Segal, 2014. "The Global Distribution of Income," Economics Series Working Papers 714, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Maxim Pinkovskiy & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2015. "Lights, Camera,... Income! Estimating Poverty Using National Accounts, Survey Means and Lights," LIS Working papers 645, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    11. Moatsos, Michail, 2020. "Global Absolute Poverty: The Evolution of its Measurement," EconStor Preprints 216642, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Christoph Lakner & Branko Milanovic, 2016. "Global Income Distribution: From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 30(2), pages 203-232.
    13. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    14. Maxim L. Pinkovskiy & Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 2014. "Lights, camera,...income! Estimating poverty using national accounts, survey means, and lights," Staff Reports 669, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2013. "Inequality from a global perspective: An alternative approach," Working Papers 302, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    16. Peter Edward, Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Geography of Inequality: Where and by How Much Has Income Distribution Changed since 1990?-Working Paper 341," Working Papers 341, Center for Global Development.
    17. Channing Arndt & Kristi Mahrt, 2017. "Is inequality underestimated in Mozambique? Accounting for underreported consumption," WIDER Working Paper Series 153, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Jordá, Vanesa & Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel, 2019. "Global inequality: How large is the effect of top incomes?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Anand, Sudhir & Segal, Paul, 2017. "Who Are the Global Top 1%?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 111-126.
    20. Andy Sumner, 2013. "Global Poverty, Aid, and Middle-Income Countries: Are the Country Classifications Moribund or is Global Poverty in the Process of 'Nationalizing'?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-062, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:58:y:2014:i:c:p:67-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.