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The Global Distribution of Income in 2050

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  • Hillebrand, Evan

Abstract

Summary Several recent papers have explored the history of the global income distribution and point to some improvements: a falling global Gini coefficient, a falling poverty rate, and falling poverty headcounts. This paper uses the simple accounting procedure (SAP) discussed by Bhalla [Bhalla, S. S. (2002). Imagine there's no country: Poverty, inequality and growth in the era of globalization. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics] and the International Futures Model [Hughes, B. B., & Hillebrand, E. E. (2006). Exploring and shaping international futures. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers] to project the global distribution of income in 2015 and 2050. The results suggest that unless the OECD countries start growing more slowly than is now commonly assumed or broad swaths of the developing world substantially improve their economic performance beyond that experienced in the last 25 years, the global income distribution will soon start to worsen again.

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  • Hillebrand, Evan, 2008. "The Global Distribution of Income in 2050," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 727-740, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:36:y:2008:i:5:p:727-740
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    6. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Future of Global Poverty in a Multi-Speed World: New Estimates of Scale, Location and Cost," Working Papers 111, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    7. Hillebrand Evan E, 2010. "Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, May.
    8. Ben Crow & Nichole Zlatunich & Brian Fulfrost, 2009. "Mapping global inequalities: Beyond income inequality to multi-dimensional inequalities," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1051-1065.
    9. Robert Hill & Daniel Melser, 2015. "Benchmark averaging and the measurement of changes in international income inequality," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(4), pages 767-801, November.
    10. Peter Edward, Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Geography of Inequality: Where and by How Much Has Income Distribution Changed since 1990?-Working Paper 341," Working Papers 341, Center for Global Development.
    11. Panagiotis ARTELARIS & George KANDYLIS, 2014. "Mapping Poverty At Regional Level In Greece," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 39, pages 131-147.
    12. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2014. "The Poor, the Prosperous and the ‘Inbetweeners’: A Fresh Perspective on Global Society, Inequality and Growth," Working Papers 122, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    13. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2013. "Inequality from a global perspective: An alternative approach," Working Papers 302, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    14. Calzadilla, Alvaro, 2010. "Global income distribution and poverty: Implications from the IPCC SRES scenarios," Kiel Working Papers 1664, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Amer Ahmed & Maurizio Bussolo & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2020. "Global Inequality in a more educated world," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(4), pages 585-616, December.
    16. Marina Malkina, 2014. "Study of the relationship between the development level and degree of income inequality in the Russian regions," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 238-248.
    17. Edward, Peter & Sumner, Andy, 2014. "Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-82.
    18. Rougoor, Ward & van Marrewijk, Charles, 2015. "Demography, Growth, and Global Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 220-232.
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