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Dynamic relationship between air transport demand and economic growth in the United States: A new look

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  • Chi, Junwook
  • Baek, Jungho

Abstract

This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of economic growth and market shocks (e.g., 9/11 terrorist attacks, Iraq war, SARS epidemic, and 2008 financial crisis) on air passenger and freight services using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. Results show that, in the long-run, both air passenger and freight services tend to increase with economic growth. In the short-run, however, only air passenger service is responsive to economic growth. Finally, only the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the SARS have detrimental effects on air passenger demand both in the short- and long-run, and in the long-run, respectively. However, these market shocks are found to have little impact on air freight demand.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transport Policy.

Volume (Year): 29 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 257-260

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Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:257-260

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Related research

Keywords: Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach; Economic growth; Error correction model; US air travel and freight demand;

References

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  1. Harumi Ito & Darin Lee, 2003. "Assessing the Impact of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Airline Demand," Working Papers 2003-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  2. Scott Blunk & David Clark & James McGibany, 2006. "Evaluating the long-run impacts of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on US domestic airline travel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 363-370.
  3. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Chang, Yu-Hern & Chang, Yu-Wei, 2009. "Air cargo expansion and economic growth: Finding the empirical link," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 264-265.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  7. Lai, Sue Ling & Lu, Whei-Li, 2005. "Impact analysis of September 11 on air travel demand in the USA," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 455-458.
  8. Marazzo, Marcial & Scherre, Rafael & Fernandes, Elton, 2010. "Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: A time series analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 261-269, March.
  9. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis, 2004. "A comparison of autoregressive distributed lag and dynamic OLS cointegration estimators in the case of a serially correlated cointegration error," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 585-617, December.
  10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
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