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The impact of lateness and reliability on passenger rail demand

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  • Batley, Richard
  • Dargay, Joyce
  • Wardman, Mark
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    Abstract

    To date, forecasts of the demand impacts of lateness and reliability have been derived largely from individual-level models taken at a snapshot in time. The contribution of this paper is to develop a dynamic model of rail demand at the market-level, yielding short and long-run elasticities with respect to lateness. Whereas individual-level models have suggested a high valuation of lateness and reliability, our market-level models indicate a relatively mooted demand response. Reconciling these findings, we reason that, whilst rail travellers show considerable disdain for experiences of lateness, such experiences will not necessarily dissuade them from travelling by train.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review.

    Volume (Year): 47 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 61-72

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:47:y:2011:i:1:p:61-72

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/description#description

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    Related research

    Keywords: Rail demand Reliability Journey time variability Elasticity Dynamic;

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    Cited by:
    1. Amanda Stathopoulos & Stephane Hess, 2011. "Referencing, Gains-Losses Asymmetry And Non-Linear Sensitivities In Commuter Decisions: One Size Does Not Fit All!," Working Papers 0511, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2011.
    2. Abate, Megersa & Lijesen, Mark & Pels, Eric & Roelevelt, Adriaan, 2013. "The impact of reliability on the productivity of railroad companies," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 41-49.
    3. Stathopoulos, Amanda & Hess, Stephane, 2012. "Revisiting reference point formation, gains–losses asymmetry and non-linear sensitivities with an emphasis on attribute specific treatment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1673-1689.
    4. Piening, J. & Ehrmann, T. & Meiseberg, B., 2013. "Competing risks for train tickets – An empirical investigation of customer behavior and performance in the railway industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-16.

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