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A model to assess public transport demand stability

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  • Bass, Pablo
  • Donoso, Pedro
  • Munizaga, Marcela

Abstract

Transport authorities, especially those in developing countries where rising income stimulate increased car ownership rates, are often concerned with maintaining or increasing levels of public transport use. Therefore, the ability to identify clients at risk of abandoning the system can be valuable for remedial measures, allowing for more focused quality improvements. We present and apply a model that determines the probability of migrating from public to private transport at both aggregated and disaggregated levels. In application, the model predicted migration with 60% accuracy in the first preference recovery measure. The proposed model can improve the understanding of the behavior of public transport users, the analysis of demand stability and the factors influencing migration. This, in turn, can help to focus policy and management measures and increase the efficiency of public investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bass, Pablo & Donoso, Pedro & Munizaga, Marcela, 2011. "A model to assess public transport demand stability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 755-764, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:8:p:755-764
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    Cited by:

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    2. Thomas E. Guerrero & C. Angelo Guevara & Elisabetta Cherchi & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2021. "Addressing endogeneity in strategic urban mode choice models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 2081-2102, August.
    3. Gschwender, Antonio & Munizaga, Marcela & Simonetti, Carolina, 2016. "Using smart card and GPS data for policy and planning: The case of Transantiago," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 242-249.
    4. Bastani, Parisa & Heywood, John B. & Hope, Chris, 2012. "The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 517-548.
    5. Wang, Jiangbo & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Liu, Kai, 2022. "Exploring the subscribing behavior of customized bus passengers: Active users versus inactive users," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

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