Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Forecasting vs. observed outturn: Studying choice in faster inter-island connections

Contents:

Author Info

  • Grisolía, José María
  • Ortúzar, Juan de Dios
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Passenger demand and, in particular, mode choice between the islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife has experienced important changes in the last decade. In 2005 the jetfoil, which had been the dominant mode for many years, was replaced by a slower but cheaper fast ferry service. This induced important changes in the market shares of all competing modes (airplane, slow ferry and another fast ferry with a shorter in-sea time, but needing a bus connection in land). We estimated several discrete choice models, with data collected two years before, with the aim to test their forecasting performance in relation with observed behaviour. Interestingly, we found that an easy to interpret multinomial logit model allowing for systematic taste variations performed best in forecasting. We also discuss some model assumptions related to forecasting that allow replicating the effects of introducing a new mode more accurately. We finally show how the model can be used to examine the social benefits of a related infrastructure improvement project in the island of Gran Canaria.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VG7-4Y7NDJM-1/2/0f2693297a4465e8f79cc11f7518ae65
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 44 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 159-168

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:44:y:2010:i:3:p:159-168

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description

    Order Information:
    Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
    Web: https://shop.elsevier.com/order?id=547&ref=547_01_ooc_1&version=01

    Related research

    Keywords: Discrete choice analysis Forecasts vs. outturn Inter-island travel demand;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Juan De Dios Ort�zar & Rosa Marina González, 2002. "Inter-Island Travel Demand Response with Discrete Choice Models: Functional Form, Forecasts, and Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 115-138, January.
    2. Trujillo, Lourdes & Quinet, Emile & Estache, Antonio, 2002. "Dealing with demand forecasting games in transport privatization," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 325-334, October.
    3. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Navarrete, Francisca Javiera & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2013. "Subjective valuation of the transit transfer experience: The case of Santiago de Chile," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 138-147.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:44:y:2010:i:3:p:159-168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.