Regimes in social-cultural events-driven activity sequences: Modelling approach and empirical application
AbstractIn this study we propose and apply a Bayesian-network model to predict and analyse the factors that influence activity-travel sequences that are triggered by social-cultural events. The study is motivated by the intention to examine the wider context in which activity-travel decisions are made and to model such decisions under longitudinal time horizons. We assume that social events trigger a series of interrelated activities and corresponding trips. Data about events and related activities are collected using a month-diary and involving a large sample of households in the Eindhoven region, The Netherlands. A learning algorithm is applied to derive a Bayesian-network model from the event diary. The results show that indeed many travel choices are influenced by particular events, that these influences vary by socio-demographic variables and that the learned Bayesian-network model is able to represent these interdependencies among all these variables. We demonstrate how the model can be used to predict event-driven activity-travel sequences in a micro-simulation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.
Volume (Year): 43 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Janssens, Davy & Wets, Geert & Brijs, Tom & Vanhoof, Koen & Arentze, Theo & Timmermans, Harry, 2006. "Integrating Bayesian networks and decision trees in a sequential rule-based transportation model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 16-34, November.
- Eric Miller & Matthew Roorda & Juan Carrasco, 2005. "A tour-based model of travel mode choice," Transportation, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 399-422, 07.
- Lauritzen, Steffen L., 1995. "The EM algorithm for graphical association models with missing data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 191-201, February.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.