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Factors influencing the propensity to cycle to work

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  • Wardman, Mark
  • Tight, Miles
  • Page, Matthew
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    Abstract

    This paper describes the development of a mode choice model for the journey to work with special emphasis on the propensity to cycle. The model combines Revealed Preference (RP) and Stated Preference (SP) data to form a very large and comprehensive model. RP data from the National Travel Survey was combined with a specially commissioned RP survey. A number of SP surveys were also undertaken to examine the effects of different types of en-route and trip end cycle facilities and financial measures to encourage cycling. The development of the model is described in detail. The model was used to forecast trends in urban commuting shares over time and to predict the impacts of different measures to encourage cycling. Of the en-route cycle facilities, a completely segregated cycleway was forecast to have the greatest impact, but even the unfeasible scenario of universal provision of such facilities would only result in a 55% increase in cycling and a slight reduction in car commuting. Payments for cycling to work were found to be highly effective with a £2 daily payment almost doubling the level of cycling. The most effective policy would combine improvements in en-route facilities, a daily payment to cycle to work and comprehensive trip end facilities and this would also have a significant impact on car commuting.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 41 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 4 (May)
    Pages: 339-350

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:41:y:2007:i:4:p:339-350

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    References

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    1. Wardman, Mark & Hatfield, Richard & Page, Matthew, 1997. "The UK national cycling strategy: can improved facilities meet the targets?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 123-133, April.
    2. Rietveld, Piet & Daniel, Vanessa, 2004. "Determinants of bicycle use: do municipal policies matter?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 531-550, August.
    3. Tilahun, Nebiyou Y. & Levinson, David M. & Krizek, Kevin J., 2007. "Trails, lanes, or traffic: Valuing bicycle facilities with an adaptive stated preference survey," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 287-301, May.
    4. Gaffron, Philine, 2003. "The implementation of walking and cycling policies in British local authorities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 235-244, July.
    5. Hopkinson, P & Wardman, M, 1996. "Evaluating the demand for new cycle facilities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 241-249, October.
    6. Noland, Robert B & Kunreuther, Howard, 1995. "Short-run and long-run policies for increasing bicycle transportation for daily commuter trips," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 67-79, January.
    7. Wardman, Mark, 2004. "Public transport values of time," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 363-377, October.
    8. Ortúzar, Juan de Dios & Iacobelli, Andrés & Valeze, Claudio, 2000. "Estimating demand for a cycle-way network," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 353-373, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. José Castillo-Manzano & Antonio Sánchez-Braza, 2013. "Managing a smart bicycle system when demand outstrips supply: the case of the university community in Seville," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 459-477, February.
    2. Vandenbulcke, Grégory & Dujardin, Claire & Thomas, Isabelle & Geus, Bas de & Degraeuwe, Bart & Meeusen, Romain & Panis, Luc Int, 2011. "Cycle commuting in Belgium: Spatial determinants and 're-cycling' strategies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 118-137, February.
    3. Björklund, Gunilla & Mortazavi , Reza, 2013. "Influences of infrastructure and attitudes to health on value of travel time savings in bicycle journeys," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:35, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    4. Pucher, John & Buehler, Ralph & Seinen, Mark, 2011. "Bicycling renaissance in North America? An update and re-appraisal of cycling trends and policies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 451-475, July.
    5. Israel, Emil & Cohen-Blankshtain, Galit, 2010. "Testing the decentralization effects of rail systems: Empirical findings from Israel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 523-536, August.
    6. Wang, Dianhai & Feng, Tianjun & Liang, Chunyan, 2008. "Research on bicycle conversion factors," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1129-1139, October.
    7. Susan Handy & Yan Xing & Theodore Buehler, 2010. "Factors associated with bicycle ownership and use: a study of six small U.S. cities," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(6), pages 967-985, November.
    8. Björklund, Gunilla & Isacsson, Gunnar, 2013. "Forecasting the impact of infrastructure on Swedish commuters’ cycling behaviour," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:36, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    9. Thomas Götschi & Beat Hintermann, 2013. "Valuation of public investment to support bicycling (FV-09)," Working papers 2013/02, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    10. Smith, Michael S. & Kauermann, Göran, 2011. "Bicycle commuting in Melbourne during the 2000s energy crisis: A semiparametric analysis of intraday volumes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1846-1862.
    11. Ehrgott, Matthias & Wang, Judith Y.T. & Raith, Andrea & van Houtte, Chris, 2012. "A bi-objective cyclist route choice model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 652-663.
    12. Macdonald, Elizabeth & Sanders, Rebecca & Supawanich, Paul, 2008. "The Effects of Transportation Corridors' Roadside Design Features on User Behavior and Safety, and Their Contributions to Health, Environmental Quality, and Community Economic Vitality: a Literature R," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt12047015, University of California Transportation Center.
    13. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2012. "The value of time and external benefits in bicycle appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 673-683.
    14. Lawson, Anneka Ruth & McMorrow, Karen & Ghosh, Bidisha, 2013. "Analysis of the non-motorized commuter journeys in major Irish cities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 179-188.
    15. Ralph Buehler & John Pucher, 2012. "Cycling to work in 90 large American cities: new evidence on the role of bike paths and lanes," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 409-432, March.
    16. Laird, James & Page, Matthew & Shen, Shujie, 2013. "The value of dedicated cyclist and pedestrian infrastructure on rural roads," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 86-96.
    17. Hyochul Park & Yong Lee & Hee Shin & Keemin Sohn, 2011. "Analyzing the time frame for the transition from leisure-cyclist to commuter-cyclist," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 305-319, March.
    18. John Parkin & Mark Wardman & Matthew Page, 2008. "Estimation of the determinants of bicycle mode share for the journey to work using census data," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 93-109, January.
    19. Caulfield, Brian, 2014. "Re-cycling a city – Examining the growth of cycling in Dublin," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 216-226.
    20. Parkin, John & Rotheram, Jonathon, 2010. "Design speeds and acceleration characteristics of bicycle traffic for use in planning, design and appraisal," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 335-341, September.

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