IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v143y2019icp239-248.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can hydrogen fuel vehicles be a sustainable alternative on vehicle market?: Comparison of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

Author

Listed:
  • Shin, Jungwoo
  • Hwang, Won-Sik
  • Choi, Hyundo

Abstract

Whereas the paradigm shift in the transportation sector caused by climate change previously put electric vehicles (EVs) at the center, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) have recently emerged as a new driver for change. From an environmental perspective, EVs might not represent an effective alternative to traditional vehicles because their emissions potential depends on how the electricity is produced. HFCVs also have the potential to cause GHG emissions, depending on how the hydrogen is produced. This study considers EVs and HFCVs to be eco-friendly alternatives, and analyzes consumer preferences for the vehicles and their environmental effects, taking into account future competition within the automobile market. For analysis, we divided consumers into drivers and non-drivers and used a conjoint survey and mixed multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model. Our results indicate that both drivers and non-drivers preferred EVs over HFCVs in terms of choice, but the preference structure differed between the driver and non-driver groups in terms of usage levels. To examine the potential environmental effects of EVs and HFCVs, we conducted a scenario analysis. The results will serve as base research material for formulating HFCV-related policies in the light of the probable future outcomes of competition between EVs and HFCVs.

Suggested Citation

  • Shin, Jungwoo & Hwang, Won-Sik & Choi, Hyundo, 2019. "Can hydrogen fuel vehicles be a sustainable alternative on vehicle market?: Comparison of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 239-248.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:143:y:2019:i:c:p:239-248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.02.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518307510
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.02.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joel Huber and Kenneth Train., 2000. "On the Similarity of Classical and Bayesian Estimates of Individual Mean Partworths," Economics Working Papers E00-289, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Faria, Lourenço Galvão Diniz & Andersen, Maj Munch, 2017. "Sectoral patterns versus firm-level heterogeneity - The dynamics of eco-innovation strategies in the automotive sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 266-281.
    3. Hong, Junhee & Koo, Yoonmo & Jeong, Gicheol & Lee, Jongsu, 2012. "Ex-ante evaluation of profitability and government's subsidy policy on vehicle-to-grid system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 95-104.
    4. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, January.
    5. Hoen, Anco & Koetse, Mark J., 2014. "A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private car owners in the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-215.
    6. Vanessa OLTRA (E3i-IFReDE-GRES) & Maïder SAINT-JEAN (E3i-IFReDE-GRES), 2006. "Variety of technological trajectories in low emission vehicles (LEVs): a patent data analysis," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2006-20, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
    7. Ahn, Jiwoon & Jeong, Gicheol & Kim, Yeonbae, 2008. "A forecast of household ownership and use of alternative fuel vehicles: A multiple discrete-continuous choice approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2091-2104, September.
    8. Dongnyok Shim & Jungwoo Shin & So‐Yoon Kwak, 2018. "Modelling the consumer decision‐making process to identify key drivers and bottlenecks in the adoption of environmentally friendly products," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1409-1421, December.
    9. Hyundo Choi & Sangook Park & Jeong-dong Lee, 2011. "Government-driven knowledge networks as precursors to emerging sectors: a case of the hydrogen energy sector in Korea," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 20(3), pages 751-787, June.
    10. Jochem, Patrick & Doll, Claus & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "External costs of electric vehicles," MPRA Paper 91602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Woo, JongRoul & Choi, Jae Young & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Jongsu, 2014. "The effect of new media on consumer media usage: An empirical study in South Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 3-11.
    12. Wolinetz, Michael & Axsen, Jonn, 2017. "How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the REspondent-based Preference And Constraints (REPAC) model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 238-250.
    13. Tran, Martino & Banister, David & Bishop, Justin D.K. & McCulloch, Malcolm D., 2013. "Simulating early adoption of alternative fuel vehicles for sustainability," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(5), pages 865-875.
    14. Bhat, Chandra R., 2008. "The multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model: Role of utility function parameters, identification considerations, and model extensions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 274-303, March.
    15. Bhat, Chandra R., 2005. "A multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model: formulation and application to discretionary time-use decisions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 679-707, September.
    16. Jungwoo Shin & Suna Kang & Donghyun Lee & Bum Il Hong, 2018. "Analysing the failure factors of eco‐friendly home appliances based on a user‐centered approach," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1399-1408, December.
    17. Hyundo Choi, 2018. "Technology-push and demand-pull factors in emerging sectors: evidence from the electric vehicle market," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 655-674, August.
    18. Allenby, Greg M. & Rossi, Peter E., 1998. "Marketing models of consumer heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 57-78, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kyuho Maeng & Sungmin Ko & Jungwoo Shin & Youngsang Cho, 2020. "How Much Electricity Sharing Will Electric Vehicle Owners Allow from Their Battery? Incorporating Vehicle-to-Grid Technology and Electricity Generation Mix," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-25, August.
    2. Jungwoo Shin & Taehoon Lim & Moo Yeon Kim & Jae Young Choi, 2018. "Can Next-Generation Vehicles Sustainably Survive in the Automobile Market? Evidence from Ex-Ante Market Simulation and Segmentation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Byun, Hyunsuk & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Chul-Yong, 2018. "Using a discrete choice experiment to predict the penetration possibility of environmentally friendly vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 312-321.
    4. Woo, JongRoul & Choi, Jae Young & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Jongsu, 2014. "The effect of new media on consumer media usage: An empirical study in South Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 3-11.
    5. Jung-Kyu Jung & Jae Young Choi, 2022. "Choice and allocation characteristics of faculty time in Korea: effects of tenure, research performance, and external shock," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(5), pages 2847-2869, May.
    6. Huh, Sung-Yoon & Lee, Hyejin & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Donghyun & Jang, Jinyoung, 2018. "Inter-fuel substitution path analysis of the korea cement industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 4091-4099.
    7. Rodrigo J. Tapia & Gerard Jong & Ana M. Larranaga & Helena B. Bettella Cybis, 2021. "Exploring Multiple‐discreteness in Freight Transport. A Multiple Discrete Extreme Value Model Application for Grain Consolidators in Argentina," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 581-608, September.
    8. Kim, Junghun & Seung, Hyunchan & Lee, Jongsu & Ahn, Joongha, 2020. "Asymmetric preference and loss aversion for electric vehicles: The reference-dependent choice model capturing different preference directions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. Koo, Yoonmo & Kim, Chang Seob & Hong, Junhee & Choi, Ie-Jung & Lee, Jongsu, 2012. "Consumer preferences for automobile energy-efficiency grades," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 446-451.
    10. Chandra R. Bhat & Subodh K. Dubey & Mohammad Jobair Bin Alam & Waleed H. Khushefati, 2015. "A New Spatial Multiple Discrete-Continuous Modeling Approach To Land Use Change Analysis," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(5), pages 801-841, November.
    11. Park, Soyeong & Maeng, Kyuho & Shin, Jungwoo, 2023. "Efficient subsidy distribution for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles based on demand segmentation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    12. Ahn, Jiwoon & Jeong, Gicheol & Kim, Yeonbae, 2008. "A forecast of household ownership and use of alternative fuel vehicles: A multiple discrete-continuous choice approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2091-2104, September.
    13. Shin, Jungwoo & Park, Yuri & Lee, Daeho, 2016. "Strategic management of over-the-top services: Focusing on Korean consumer adoption behavior," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 329-337.
    14. Sikder, Sujan & Pinjari, Abdul Rawoof, 2013. "The benefits of allowing heteroscedastic stochastic distributions in multiple discrete-continuous choice models," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 39-56.
    15. Acharya, Bikram & Marhold, Klaus, 2019. "Determinants of household energy use and fuel switching behavior in Nepal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 1132-1138.
    16. Castro, Marisol & Bhat, Chandra R. & Pendyala, Ram M. & Jara-Díaz, Sergio R., 2012. "Accommodating multiple constraints in the multiple discrete–continuous extreme value (MDCEV) choice model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 729-743.
    17. Ye, Xin & Garikapati, Venu M. & You, Daehyun & Pendyala, Ram M., 2017. "A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 173-192.
    18. Kidokoro, Yukihiro, 2016. "A micro foundation for discrete choice models with multiple categories of goods," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 54-72.
    19. Kuriyama, Koichi & Shoji, Yasushi & Tsuge, Takahiro, 2020. "The value of leisure time of weekends and long holidays: The multiple discrete–continuous extreme value (MDCEV) choice model with triple constraints," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    20. Richards, Timothy J. & Gómez, Miguel I. & Pofahl, Geoffrey, 2012. "A Multiple-discrete/Continuous Model of Price Promotion," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 206-225.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:143:y:2019:i:c:p:239-248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.