IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/socmed/v73y2011i2p254-263.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance

Author

Listed:
  • Michaud, Pierre-Carl
  • Goldman, Dana
  • Lakdawalla, Darius
  • Gailey, Adam
  • Zheng, Yuhui

Abstract

In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than most of their Western European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy had fallen behind that of most Western European countries. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily due to real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their Western European peers. We use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Western Europe. The model implies that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Western Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Goldman, Dana & Lakdawalla, Darius & Gailey, Adam & Zheng, Yuhui, 2011. "Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 254-263, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:73:y:2011:i:2:p:254-263
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953611003042
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lakdawalla, Darius & Philipson, Tomas, 2009. "The growth of obesity and technological change," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 283-293, December.
    2. Samuel H. Preston & Jessica Y. Ho, 2009. "Low Life Expectancy in the United States: Is the Health Care System at Fault?," NBER Working Papers 15213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
    4. David M. Cutler & Edward L. Glaeser & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2003. "Why Have Americans Become More Obese?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 93-118, Summer.
    5. Peter Adams & Michael D. Hurd & Daniel L. McFadden & Angela Merrill & Tiago Ribeiro, 2004. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise? Tests for Direct Causal Paths between Health and Socioeconomic Status," NBER Chapters, in: Perspectives on the Economics of Aging, pages 415-526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ronald Lee, 2000. "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 80-91.
    7. David M. Cutler & Edward L. Glaeser, 2009. "Why Do Europeans Smoke More than Americans?," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 255-282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Rogers, Richard G. & Powell-Griner, Eve, 1991. "Life expectancies of cigarette smokers and nonsmokers in the United States," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1151-1159, January.
    9. Ruhm Christopher J, 2007. "Current and Future Prevalence of Obesity and Severe Obesity in the United States," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, September.
    10. Goldman, Dana & Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Lakdawalla, Darius & Zheng, Yuhui & Gailey, Adam & Vaynman, Igor, 2010. "The Fiscal Consequences of Trends in Population Health," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 63(2), pages 307-330, June.
    11. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Nan Li & Carl Boe, 2000. "A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries," Nature, Nature, vol. 405(6788), pages 789-792, June.
    12. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Goldman, D.P. & Zheng, Y. & Girosi, F. & Michaud, P.-C. & Olshansky, S.J. & Cutler, D. & Rowe, J.W., 2009. "The benefits of risk factor prevention in Americans aged 51 years and older," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 99(11), pages 2096-2101.
    14. Kevin M. White, 2002. "Longevity Advances in High‐Income Countries, 1955–96," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 59-76, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vincenzo Atella & Federico Belotti & Daejung Kim & Dana Goldman & Tadeja Gracner & Andrea Piano Mortari & Bryan Tysinger, 2021. "The future of the elderly population health status: Filling a knowledge gap," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(S1), pages 11-29, November.
    2. Chen, Cynthia & Lim, Jue Tao & Chia, Ngee Choon & Wang, Lijia & Tysinger, Bryan & Zissimopoulos, Julie & Chong, Ming Zhe & Wang, Zhe & Koh, Gerald Choon Huat & Yuan, Jian-Min & Tan, Kelvin Bryan & Chi, 2019. "The long-term impact of functional disability on hospitalization spending in Singapore," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    3. Raquel Fonseca Benito & Yuhui Zheng, 2011. "The Effect of Education on Health Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers WR-864, RAND Corporation.
    4. Raquel Fonseca & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Yuhui Zheng, 2020. "The effect of education on health: evidence from national compulsory schooling reforms," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 83-103, March.
    5. Datta Gupta, Nabanita & Kleinjans, Kristin J. & Larsen, Mona, 2015. "The effect of a severe health shock on work behavior: Evidence from different health care regimes," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 136, pages 44-51.
    6. Goldman Dana P. & Lakdawalla Darius N. & Baumgardner James R. & Linthicum Mark T., 2016. "Are Biopharmaceutical Budget Caps Good Public Policy?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 27-42, December.
    7. Côté-Sergent, Aurelie & Fonseca, Raquel & Strumpf, Erin, 2020. "Comparing the education gradient in health deterioration among the elderly in six OECD countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 326-335.
    8. Duncan Ermini Leaf & Bryan Tysinger & Dana P. Goldman & Darius N. Lakdawalla, 2021. "Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(S1), pages 52-79, November.
    9. Daniel Bauer & Darius Lakdawalla & Julian Reif, 2018. "Mortality Risk, Insurance, and the Value of Life," NBER Working Papers 25055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Silvia Balia, 2014. "Survival expectations, subjective health and smoking: evidence from SHARE," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 753-780, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Goldman, Dana P. & Lakdawalla, Darius N. & Zheng, Yuhui & Gailey, Adam H., 2012. "The value of medical and pharmaceutical interventions for reducing obesity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 630-643.
    2. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Dana Goldman & Darius Lakdawalla & Adam Gailey & Yuhui Zheng, 2009. "International Differences in Longevity and Health and their Economic Consequences," NBER Working Papers 15235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Goldman, Dana P. & Lakdawalla, Darius N. & Zheng, Yuhui & Gailey, Adam H., 2009. "Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health," IZA Discussion Papers 4366, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Giorgio Brunello & Pierre-Carl Michaud & Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano, 2008. "The Rise in Obesity Across the Atlantic An Economic Perspective," Working Papers WR-586, RAND Corporation.
    5. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    6. Daniel Bauer & Darius Lakdawalla & Julian Reif, 2018. "Mortality Risk, Insurance, and the Value of Life," NBER Working Papers 25055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ruhm, Christopher J., 2012. "Understanding overeating and obesity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 781-796.
    8. Brunello, Giorgio & Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2008. "The Rise in Obesity across the Atlantic: An Economic Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3529, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Inas Kelly & Dhaval Dave & Jody Sindelar & William Gallo, 2014. "The impact of early occupational choice on health behaviors," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 737-770, December.
    10. Pieter van Baal & Frederik Peters & Johan Mackenbach & Wilma Nusselder, 2016. "Forecasting differences in life expectancy by education," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(2), pages 201-216, May.
    11. Giuntella, Osea & Rieger, Matthias & Rotunno, Lorenzo, 2020. "Weight gains from trade in foods: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    12. Yakusheva, Olga & Kapinos, Kandice & Weiss, Marianne, 2011. "Peer effects and the Freshman 15: Evidence from a natural experiment," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 119-132, March.
    13. Katja Hanewald & Thomas Post & Helmut Gründl, 2011. "Stochastic Mortality, Macroeconomic Risks and Life Insurer Solvency," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(3), pages 458-475, July.
    14. Costa-Font, Joan & Fabbri, Daniele & Gil, Joan, 2009. "Decomposing body mass index gaps between Mediterranean countries: A counterfactual quantile regression analysis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 351-365, December.
    15. Pierre Dubois & Rachel Griffith & Aviv Nevo, 2014. "Do Prices and Attributes Explain International Differences in Food Purchases?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 832-867, March.
    16. Vincenzo Atella & Joanna Kopinska, 2011. "Body weight of Italians: the weight of Education," CEIS Research Paper 189, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 23 Mar 2011.
    17. Strulik, Holger, 2014. "A mass phenomenon: The social evolution of obesity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 113-125.
    18. Costa-Font, Joan & Györi, Mario, 2020. "The weight of patriarchy? Gender obesity gaps in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    19. Chia, Ngee-Choon & Tsui, Albert K.C., 2005. "Medical savings accounts in Singapore: how much is adequate?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 855-875, September.
    20. Tafreschi, Darjusch, 2015. "The income body weight gradients in the developing economy of China," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 115-134.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:73:y:2011:i:2:p:254-263. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/315/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.