Medical and social predictors of longevity in the elderly: Total predictive value and interdependence
AbstractIn the Dutch Longitudinal Study among the Elderly, a probability sample of 3149 persons from the population of the Netherlands, initial ages 65-99 years, was followed from 1955 for 28 years. Vital status was determined in 1983 for 84% of the original sample. Multivariate regression models were used to predict the realized probability of dying (RPD), a measure of longevity based on actual survival time, sex and age at baseline. Predictor variables included physical, mental and social indicators of health status. The total variance explained was 20.2%. Objective health (rated by the examining physician) showed the strongest relationship with the RPD. Upon removing objective health from the model, 19.5% of the variance remained explained. Separate analyses were performed for (1) bio-medical, physical and mental examination variables, (2) disability and health care use variables, and (3) social and psychological variables; in each case the variance explained was over 11%, demonstrating considerable interdependence among predictors. Across different regression models, bio-medical and disability variables proved to be the most stable predictors of longevity.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Social Science & Medicine.
Volume (Year): 29 (1989)
Issue (Month): 11 (January)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/315/description#description
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- Hugo Benitez-Silva & Huan Ni, 2005. "Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity," Department of Economics Working Papers 05-14, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
- Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Ni, Huan, 2008. "Health status and health dynamics in an empirical model of expected longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 564-584, May.
- Hugo Benitez-Silva & Huan Ni, 2007. "Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity," Department of Economics Working Papers 07-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
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