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Supply projections as planning: A critical review of forecasting net physician requirements in Canada

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  • Lomas, Jonathan
  • Stoddart, Greg L.
  • Barer, Morris L.

Abstract

This study involves a critical review of the current methods used to establish net future physician manpower requirements in Canada. The paper explores specific examples of physician manpower forecasting in Canada, and contrasts them with an extensive U.S. exercise completed recently. The conceptual and measurement difficulties inherent in the Canadian methodology are outlined. Particular attention is paid to the various factors that can potentially influence physician requirements but which are omitted from consideration in traditional forecasting. The paper concludes with a discussion of the definition of 'need' in the context of physician requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Lomas, Jonathan & Stoddart, Greg L. & Barer, Morris L., 1985. "Supply projections as planning: A critical review of forecasting net physician requirements in Canada," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 411-424, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:20:y:1985:i:4:p:411-424
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    Cited by:

    1. Paszkiewicz, T. & Pruchnik, M., 1996. "Kinetic description of the phonon-pulse propagation and phonon images of crystalline solids," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 232(3), pages 747-768.
    2. Kamila Parzonka & Costase Ndayishimiye & Alicja Domagała, 2023. "Methods and Tools Used to Estimate the Shortages of Medical Staff in European Countries—Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Sung-Hee Jeon & Jeremiah Hurley, 2010. "Physician Resource Planning in Canada: The Need for a Stronger Behavioural Foundation," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-375, September.
    4. Denton, Frank T. & Gafni, Amiram & Spencer, Byron G., 1995. "The SHARP way to plan health care services: A description of the system and some illustrative applications in nursing human resource planning," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 125-137, June.
    5. Mário Amorim Lopes & Álvaro Santos Almeida & Bernardo Almada-Lobo, 2018. "Forecasting the medical workforce: a stochastic agent-based simulation approach," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 52-75, March.
    6. Stephen Birch & George Kephart & Gail Tomblin-Murphy & Linda O'Brien-Pallas & Rob Alder & Adrian MacKenzie, 2007. "Human Resources Planning and the Production of Health: A Needs-Based Analytical Framework," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 33(s1), pages 1-16, January.

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