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Real option valuation of abandoned farmland

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  • Nishihara, Michi
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the decision-making process of an owner of abandoned farmland that is currently restricted to agricultural use but will be available for nonagricultural use in the future. I make a real option valuation of the abandoned farmland taking prospective land conversion into consideration. Results from the model calibration demonstrate that a slight probability of land conversion greatly increases the land value and discourages the owner from cultivating the land. Further, the results show that a small gap in the anticipation of land conversion prevents the owner from selling or leasing the land to a more efficient farmer.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1058330012000419
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 188-192

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:21:y:2012:i:4:p:188-192

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170

    Related research

    Keywords: Real option; Abandoned farmland; Land development; Land conversion;

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    References

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    1. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September.
    2. Riddiough, Timothy J., 1997. "The Economic Consequences of Regulatory Taking Risk on Land Value and Development Activity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 56-77, January.
    3. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-14, June.
    4. Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2002. "Real (investment) options with multiple sources of rare events," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 696-706, February.
    5. Nancy Bockstael, 2008. "An Empirical Examination of the Timing of Land Conversions in the Presence of Farmland Preservation Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 613-626.
    6. Capozza, Dennis & Li, Yuming, 1994. "The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 889-904, September.
    7. Robert Grovenstein & James Kau & Henry Munneke, 2011. "Development Value: A Real Options Approach Using Empirical Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 321-335, October.
    8. Eduardo S. Schwartz & Walter N. Torous, 2007. "Commercial Office Space: Testing the Implications of Real Options Models with Competitive Interactions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-20, 03.
    9. Stavins, Robert & Plantinga, Andrew & Lubowski, Ruben, 2002. "The Effects of Potential Land Development on Agricultural Land Prices," Discussion Papers dp-02-11-, Resources For the Future.
    10. M Nishihara, 2012. "Real options with synergies: static versus dynamic policies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 63(1), pages 107-121, January.
    11. Quigg, Laura, 1993. " Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 621-40, June.
    12. Michi Nishihara & Takashi Shibata, 2010. "Interactions between Preemptive Competition and a Financing Constraint," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 1013-1042, December.
    13. Shibata, Takashi & Nishihara, Michi, 2012. "Investment timing under debt issuance constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 981-991.
    14. Geoffrey Turnbull, 2005. "The Investment Incentive Effects of Land Use Regulations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 357-395, December.
    15. Christopher R. Cunningham, 2007. "Growth Controls, Real Options, and Land Development," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 343-358, May.
    16. Andrew J. Plantinga & Douglas J. Miller, 2001. "Agricultural Land Values and the Value of Rights to Future Land Development," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(1), pages 56-67.
    17. Geltner, David & Riddiough, Timothy & Stojanovic, Srdjan, 1996. "Insights on the Effect of Land Use Choice: The Perpetual Option on the Best of Two Underlying Assets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 20-50, January.
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