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Growth of aggregate corporate earnings and cash-flows: Persistence and determinants

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  • Kryzanowski, Lawrence
  • Mohsni, Sana

Abstract

Consistent with economic intuition and the intuition behind momentum strategies for market timing and sector rotation based on accrual earnings (AE), we find persistence in AE growth rates at the market and industry levels in the short run, and neither persistence nor mean reversion at both levels in the long run. Forecasted industrial production, GDP growth, term premium and default premium exhibit predictive power for short- but not long-term AE growth rates at the market level, and capital intensity and product type exhibit predictive power for both short- and long-term AE growth rates at the industry level. In contrast for growth rates of cash flows (CF), we find mean reversion and neither mean reversion nor persistence in the short- and long-run, respectively, at the market and industry levels.

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  • Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Mohsni, Sana, 2013. "Growth of aggregate corporate earnings and cash-flows: Persistence and determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 13-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:13-23
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2012.05.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Laih, Yih-Wenn & Lai, Hung-Neng & Li, Chun-An, 2015. "Analyst valuation and corporate value discovery," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 235-248.
    2. Kose John & Mahsa S Kaviani & Lawrence Kryzanowski & Hosein Maleki, 2021. "Do Country-Level Creditor Protections Affect Firm-Level Debt Structure Concentration? [Why not a political Coase theorem? Social conflict, commitment, and politics]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1677-1725.
    3. Faff, Robert & Gharghori, Philip & Nguyen, Annette, 2014. "Non-nested tests of a GDP-augmented Fama–French model versus a conditional Fama–French model in the Australian stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 627-638.
    4. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Mohsni, Sana, 2015. "Earnings forecasts and idiosyncratic volatilities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-123.
    5. Yang Pang & Shimeng Shi & Yukun Shi & Yang Zhao, 2022. "A nonlinear dynamic approach to cash flow forecasting," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 205-237, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Persistence; Mean-reversion; Growth rates; Earnings; Cash flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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