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Part 2. Beyond single-outcome models: Decompositions of aggregate and disaggregate road safety risk

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  • Gaudry, Marc
  • de Lapparent, Matthieu

Abstract

The second part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the development of the founders' double streams explaining single-outcome indicators (probability of accidents and fatalities, respectively) by fixed form regression, as outlined in the Part 1. Following Page (1997, pp. 67–122, 2001) and others, we use as turning point of the evolution of both aggregate and discrete approaches the DRAG-1 model of 1984, itself based on aggregate data, which introduced four key innovations in principle applicable to both streams.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in Transportation Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 20-37

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Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:37:y:2013:i:1:p:20-37

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Related research

Keywords: DRAG road accident model innovations; Decomposition of road damages among exposure; frequency and severity dimensions or risks; Endogeneity of driver behavior; Box–Cox forms and unconditional regression signs; Road safety outcomes as a demand system; Multivariate formulations; Time horizon of adjustment; Survey of aggregate model development; Single-outcome; Single-region models; Multiple-outcome; Multiple-region models; Survey of discrete model development; Aggregation from individual to population values;

References

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  1. Crandall, Robert W & Graham, John D, 1984. "Automobile Safety Regulation and Offsetting Behavior: Some New Empirical Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 328-31, May.
  2. Fortin, N., 1989. "A Unified Theory Of Aggregation: Similarity And Separability Reconsidered," Cahiers de recherche 8908, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  3. Boyer, M. & Dionne, G., 1985. "La Tarification de L'assurance Automobile et les Incitations a la Securite Routiere: une Etude Empirique," Cahiers de recherche 8553, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Bolduc, Denis & Bonin, Sylvie & Lee-Gosselin, Martin, 2013. "A disaggregated tool for evaluation of road safety policies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 79-98.
  5. Peltzman, Sam, 1975. "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 677-725, August.
  6. Mullahy, John, 1986. "Specification and testing of some modified count data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 341-365, December.
  7. Boyer, M. & Dionne, G., 1985. "The Economics of Road Safety," Cahiers de recherche 8554, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Grabowski, David C. & Morrisey, Michael A., 2006. "Do higher gasoline taxes save lives?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 51-55, January.
  9. Murat K. Munkin & Pravin K. Trivedi, 1999. "Simulated maximum likelihood estimation of multivariate mixed-Poisson regression models, with application," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 29-48.
  10. David C. Grabowski & Michael A. Morrisey, 2004. "Gasoline prices and motor vehicle fatalities," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 575-593.
  11. Dagenais, Marcel G. & Gaudry, Marc J. I. & Liem, Tran Cong, 1987. "Urban travel demand: The impact of Box-Cox transformations with nonspherical residual errors," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 443-477, December.
  12. Gaudry, Marc & Himouri, Slimane, 2013. "DRAG-ALZ-1, a first model of monthly total road demand, accident frequency, severity and victims by category, and of mean speed on highways, Algeria 1970–2007," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 66-78.
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