Industrial coal demand in China: A provincial analysis
AbstractThe general concern on the environmental implications of the rising demand for coal registered in China during the last few years has induced considerable research effort to produce accurate forecasts of China's energy requirements. Nevertheless, no previous study has modelled the coal demand in China at provincial level. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate and forecast the Chinese demand for coal using panel data disaggregated by provinces and accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Second, given the spatial nature of the data, we explicitly capture the spatial autocorrelation among provinces using spatial econometrics. In particular, we specify the Chinese industrial coal demand at provincial level with fixed-effect spatial models. The empirical results show that the fixed-effect spatial ADL model is able to capture the existing interdependence between provinces. This model forecasts an average annual increase in coal demand to 2010 of nearly 2%.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Resource and Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505569
Energy demand in China Coal demand in China Chinese provinces Panel data Spatial econometrics Forecasting;
Other versions of this item:
- Matteo Manera & Cristina Cattaneo & Elisa Scarpa, 2008. "Industrial Coal Demand in China: A Provincial Analysis," Working Papers 2008.8, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
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