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Coal consumption and industrial production nexus in USA: Cointegration with two unknown structural breaks and causality approaches

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  • Yildirim, Ertugrul
  • Aslan, Alper
  • Ozturk, Ilhan

Abstract

The paper investigates the causality relationships among industrial production index, coal consumption and employment in industrial sector for the period of 1973:1–2011:10 in USA. After noticing that there are breaks in the regression model, the Hatemi-J test for cointegration is employed to the cases that take into account two possible regime shifts. It is concluded that there is a long run relationship between industrial production and industrial coal consumption with the breaks at 1983:4 and 1998:4. We found a negative relationship between coal consumption and industrial production for the period of 1973:1–1983:4 and positive relationship for 1983:5–1998:4 period. For the last period that covers 1983:5–2011:10, the cointegration relationship turned to negative. In addition, the results show that causal relationship between coal consumption and industrial production changes over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 6123-6127

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Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:16:y:2012:i:8:p:6123-6127

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Keywords: Industrial production; Energy consumption; Coal consumption; Cointegration with two breaks;

References

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  1. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
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  3. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "The causal dynamics between coal consumption and growth: Evidence from emerging market economies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1972-1977, June.
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  6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  7. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-505, November.
  8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  9. Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2006. "Causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Korea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(11), pages 1181-1189, November.
  10. Jinke, Li & Hualing, Song & Dianming, Geng, 2008. "Causality relationship between coal consumption and GDP: Difference of major OECD and non-OECD countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(6), pages 421-429, June.
  11. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "Coal consumption and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1353-1359, March.
  12. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  13. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2010. "Coal consumption and economic growth revisited," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 160-167, January.
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