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Looking for hysteresis in coal consumption in the US

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Author Info

  • Congregado, Emilio
  • Golpe, Antonio A.
  • Carmona, Mónica

Abstract

This paper estimates an unobserved components model to explore coal consumption in the USA. We ask whether coal consumption exhibits hysteresis, defined as a dynamic structure in which the cyclical component of coal consumption has permanent effects on the natural component. In contrast to previous analysis, we provide evidence in favor of hysteresis in coal consumption, by using the nonlinear framework proposed recently by Pérez-Alonso and Di Sanzo [13], in which threshold type nonlinearities are introduced by allowing past cyclical consumption to have a different impact on the natural component depending on the regime. The article discusses implications of the findings for energy conservation policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 3339-3343

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Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:16:y:2012:i:5:p:3339-3343

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Related research

Keywords: Coal consumption; Hysteresis; Unobserved components model; Time series models;

References

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  1. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  3. Mishra, Vinod & Sharma, Susan & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2318-2326, June.
  4. Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 533-576, September.
  5. Roed, Knut, 1997. " Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 389-418, December.
  6. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  7. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  8. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2007. "Is energy consumption per capita broken stationary? New evidence from regional-based panels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3526-3540, June.
  9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  10. Salemi, Michael K, 1999. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Testing the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, Jan.-Feb..
  11. Apergis, Nicholas & Loomis, David & Payne, James E., 2010. "Are shocks to natural gas consumption temporary or permanent? Evidence from a panel of U.S. states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4734-4736, August.
  12. Hsu, Yi-Chung & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2008. "Revisited: Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? New evidence from a panel SURADF approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2314-2330, September.
  13. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
  14. Bengt Assarsson & Per Jansson, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: the case of Sweden," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 25-29.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Smyth, Russell, 2013. "Are fluctuations in energy variables permanent or transitory? A survey of the literature on the integration properties of energy consumption and production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 371-378.
  2. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2013. "Will initiatives to promote hydroelectricity consumption be effective? Evidence from univariate and panel LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 47-13, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  3. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Are shocks to disaggregated energy consumption in Malaysia permanent or temporary? Evidence from LM unit root tests with structural breaks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 319-328.
  4. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2012. "Will policies to promote renewable electricity generation be effective? Evidence from panel stationarity and unit root tests for 115 countries," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 15-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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