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An integrated approach for climate-change impact analysis and adaptation planning under multi-level uncertainties. Part I: Methodology


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  • Cai, Y.P.
  • Huang, G.H.
  • Tan, Q.
  • Yang, Z.F.
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    In this study, a large-scale integrated modeling system (IMS) was developed for supporting climate-change impact analysis and adaptation planning under multi-level uncertainties. A number of methodologies were seamlessly incorporated within IMS, including fuzzy-interval inference method (FIIM), inexact energy model (IEM), and uncertainty analysis. The system could (i) encompass multiple technologies, energy resources, and sub-sectors, and climate change impact analysis into a general modeling framework, (ii) address interactions of climate change impacts on multiple energy sub-sectors and resources within an EMS, (iii) identify optimal adaptation strategies of an EMS to climate change impact through a two-step procedure, (iv) deal with multiple levels of uncertain information associated with processes of climate change impact analysis and adaptation planning, and (v) seamlessly combine climate change impact analysis results with inexact adaptation planning. It could provide decision makers a comprehensive view on the EMS as well as the corresponding adaptation schemes under climate change, greatly improving the robustness and completeness of the decision-making processes. The generated solutions can provide desired energy resource/service allocation with a minimized system cost, a maximized system reliability and a maximized energy security under varied climate change impact levels, as well as multiple levels of uncertainties. In a companion paper, the developed method is applied to a real case for the long-term planning of waste management in the Province of Manitoba, Canada.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 6 (August)
    Pages: 2779-2790

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:15:y:2011:i:6:p:2779-2790

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    Keywords: Climate change Adaptation planning Decision making Fuzzy sets Uncertainty;


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    1. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Yang, Z.F. & Tan, Q., 2009. "Identification of optimal strategies for energy management systems planning under multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 480-495, April.
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    14. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Yang, Z.F. & Lin, Q.G. & Tan, Q., 2009. "Community-scale renewable energy systems planning under uncertainty--An interval chance-constrained programming approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 721-735, May.
    15. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
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    17. Huang, G. H. & Baetz, B. W. & Patry, G. G., 1995. "Grey fuzzy integer programming: An application to regional waste management planning under uncertainty," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 17-38, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hu, Qing & Huang, Guohe & Cai, Yanpeng & Huang, Ying, 2011. "Feasibility-based inexact fuzzy programming for electric power generation systems planning under dual uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4642-4654.
    2. Zhu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2013. "Planning carbon emission trading for Beijing's electric power systems under dual uncertainties," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 113-128.


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