Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

An integrated approach for climate-change impact analysis and adaptation planning under multi-level uncertainties. Part I: Methodology

Contents:

Author Info

  • Cai, Y.P.
  • Huang, G.H.
  • Tan, Q.
  • Yang, Z.F.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In this study, a large-scale integrated modeling system (IMS) was developed for supporting climate-change impact analysis and adaptation planning under multi-level uncertainties. A number of methodologies were seamlessly incorporated within IMS, including fuzzy-interval inference method (FIIM), inexact energy model (IEM), and uncertainty analysis. The system could (i) encompass multiple technologies, energy resources, and sub-sectors, and climate change impact analysis into a general modeling framework, (ii) address interactions of climate change impacts on multiple energy sub-sectors and resources within an EMS, (iii) identify optimal adaptation strategies of an EMS to climate change impact through a two-step procedure, (iv) deal with multiple levels of uncertain information associated with processes of climate change impact analysis and adaptation planning, and (v) seamlessly combine climate change impact analysis results with inexact adaptation planning. It could provide decision makers a comprehensive view on the EMS as well as the corresponding adaptation schemes under climate change, greatly improving the robustness and completeness of the decision-making processes. The generated solutions can provide desired energy resource/service allocation with a minimized system cost, a maximized system reliability and a maximized energy security under varied climate change impact levels, as well as multiple levels of uncertainties. In a companion paper, the developed method is applied to a real case for the long-term planning of waste management in the Province of Manitoba, Canada.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032111001134
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 6 (August)
    Pages: 2779-2790

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:15:y:2011:i:6:p:2779-2790

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description

    Order Information:
    Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/bibliographic
    Web: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/bibliographic

    Related research

    Keywords: Climate change Adaptation planning Decision making Fuzzy sets Uncertainty;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Yang, Z.F. & Tan, Q., 2009. "Identification of optimal strategies for energy management systems planning under multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 480-495, April.
    2. Peramunetilleke, T.B., 1982. "Climate defeats energy planners in Sri Lanka," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 235-235.
    3. Yang, Ming, 2009. "Climate change and energy policies, coal and coalmine methane in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2858-2869, August.
    4. Williams, Jill, 1979. "Climatic impact of alternative energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 4(5), pages 933-939.
    5. Ruth, Matthias & Lin, Ai-Chen, 2006. "Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2820-2833, November.
    6. Huang, Guo H. & Baetz, Brian W. & Patry, Gilles G., 1995. "Grey integer programming: An application to waste management planning under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 594-620, June.
    7. Barnett, Jon, 2001. "Adapting to Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: The Problem of Uncertainty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 977-993, June.
    8. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining, 2009. "Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2930-2940, August.
    9. Simeonova, Katja, 1997. "Policies and measures to address climate change in Central and Eastern European Countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 56(3-4), pages 445-461, March.
    10. Breslow, Paul B. & Sailor, David J., 2002. "Vulnerability of wind power resources to climate change in the continental United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 585-598.
    11. Mansur, Erin T. & Mendelsohn, Robert & Morrison, Wendy, 2008. "Climate change adaptation: A study of fuel choice and consumption in the US energy sector," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 175-193, March.
    12. Sutherland, Ronald J, 1998. "The impact of potential climate change commitments on six industries in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 765-776, August.
    13. Allen, Myles R. & Christensen, John M., 1990. "Climate change and the need for a new energy agenda," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 19-24.
    14. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Yang, Z.F. & Lin, Q.G. & Tan, Q., 2009. "Community-scale renewable energy systems planning under uncertainty--An interval chance-constrained programming approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 721-735, May.
    15. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    16. Ingham, Alan & Ma, Jie & Ulph, Alistair, 2007. "Climate change, mitigation and adaptation with uncertainty and learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5354-5369, November.
    17. Huang, G. H. & Baetz, B. W. & Patry, G. G., 1995. "Grey fuzzy integer programming: An application to regional waste management planning under uncertainty," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 17-38, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Hu, Qing & Huang, Guohe & Cai, Yanpeng & Huang, Ying, 2011. "Feasibility-based inexact fuzzy programming for electric power generation systems planning under dual uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4642-4654.
    2. Zhu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2013. "Planning carbon emission trading for Beijing's electric power systems under dual uncertainties," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 113-128.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:15:y:2011:i:6:p:2779-2790. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.