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Variance swaps, non-normality and macroeconomic and financial risks

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  • Nieto, Belén
  • Novales, Alfonso
  • Rubio, Gonzalo

Abstract

This paper studies the determinants of the variance risk premium and discusses the hedging possibilities offered by variance swaps. We start by showing that the variance risk premium responds to changes in higher order moments of the distribution of market returns. But the uncertainty that determines the variance risk premium – the fear by investors to deviations from normality in returns – is also strongly related to a variety of macroeconomic and financial risks associated with default, employment growth, consumption growth, stock market and market illiquidity risks. We conclude that the variance risk premium reflects the market willingness to pay for hedging against these financial and macroeconomic sources of risk. An out-of-sample asset allocation exercise shows that the inclusion of the variance swap reduces the modified value-at-risk with respect to a portfolio holding exclusively the equity market portfolio.

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  • Nieto, Belén & Novales, Alfonso & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2014. "Variance swaps, non-normality and macroeconomic and financial risks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 257-270.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:54:y:2014:i:2:p:257-270
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2013.12.002
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    1. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
    2. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
    3. Juliusz Jablecki & Robert Slepaczuk & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Pawel Sakowski & Piotr Wojcik, 2014. "Does historical VIX term structure contain valuable information for predicting VIX futures?," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 5-28.
    4. Juliusz Jabłecki & Ryszard Kokoszczyński & Paweł Sakowski & Robert Ślepaczuk & Piotr Wójcik, 2014. "Does historical volatility term structure contain valuable in-formation for predicting volatility index futures?," Working Papers 2014-18, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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