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A real options approach to valuing and negotiating licensing agreements

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  • Hoe, SingRu
  • David Diltz, J.

Abstract

We apply real options modeling to a common pharmaceutical industry licensing arrangement to take into account various uncertainties and the flexibility value. The managerial flexibility is limited to the project abandonment option. We extend previous work by incorporating the phases required to bring the project from patent approval to market. We also incorporate a deterministic variable into the cash flow process that provides a realistic product lifecycle. We focus on the allocation of project value between licensor and licensee, i.e., the so-called “profit split” ratio (PSR) because it is commonly used in practice to negotiate terms. We find: (1) Ignoring the managerial flexibility in valuation may cause the licensee to either forego an acceptable deal or enter into an inferior deal. (2) The magnitude of project profitability as well as cost and sales uncertainty affects the licensor's bargaining power over compensation for granting abandonment flexibility to the licensee. (3) Managers must exercise care when estimating sales volatility because the flexibility value is more sensitive to sales volatility than it is to cost volatility. (4) Failure to incorporate the product lifecycle will produce suboptimal capital investment decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoe, SingRu & David Diltz, J., 2012. "A real options approach to valuing and negotiating licensing agreements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 322-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:52:y:2012:i:3:p:322-332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August.
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    6. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Bodendorf & Manuel Lutz & Jörg Franke, 2021. "Valuation and pricing of software licenses to support supplier–buyer negotiations: A case study in the automotive industry," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1686-1702, October.
    2. Morreale, Azzurra & Robba, Serena & Lo Nigro, Giovanna & Roma, Paolo, 2017. "A real options game of alliance timing decisions in biopharmaceutical research and development," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 1189-1202.

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