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Predictability of future index returns based on the 52-week high strategy

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  • Malin, Mirela
  • Bornholt, Graham

Abstract

In a landmark paper, George and Hwang (2004) show that a stock's 52-week high price largely explains the momentum effect and that a strategy based on closeness to the 52-week high has better forecasting power for future returns than do momentum strategies. We find that the 52-week high strategy is unprofitable when applied to emerging markets indices, and that it is significantly less profitable than the corresponding momentum strategy. Overall the 52-week high effect is not as pervasive as the momentum effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Malin, Mirela & Bornholt, Graham, 2010. "Predictability of future index returns based on the 52-week high strategy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 501-508, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:50:y:2010:i:4:p:501-508
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Zaremba, 2019. "The Cross Section of Country Equity Returns: A Review of Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Chiao Yi Chang & Hsiang-Lan Chen & Wen-Hsiu Kuo, 2017. "The Analysis of 52-Week High Investing Strategy Based on Herding Behavior," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 77-106, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    52-Week high Momentum Emerging markets Index returns;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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