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A methodology for the choice of the best fitting continuous-time stochastic models of crude oil price

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  • Kaffel, Bilel
  • Abid, Fathi
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    Abstract

    The crude oil price is generally considered as the fundamental factor in the valuation of undeveloped reserves but it is not the unique one. Undeveloped field value also depends on the uncertainty relating to the convenience yield and the risk-free interest rate. The purpose of this paper is to decide on the best continuous-time stochastic models for these risk factors. The Generalized Method of Moments and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation are implemented to fit the parameters of continuous-time stochastic processes. The results of unit root tests without breaks reveal a mean reversion in convenience yield series. Multiple structural change tests show that the risk-free interest rate can be considered constant. The simulation of continuous-time stochastic processes and the mean error between the simulated prices and the market ones show that the Geometric Brownian Motion with jumps is the best model for the oil price compared to the other commonly used processes.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 49 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (August)
    Pages: 971-1000

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:49:y:2009:i:3:p:971-1000

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167

    Related research

    Keywords: Stochastic processes Multiple structural change tests Oil price GMM and MLE estimation Simulation;

    References

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    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Malcolm P. Baker & E. Scott Mayfield & John E. Parsons, 1998. "Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 115-148.
    5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
    6. Postali, Fernando A.S. & Picchetti, Paulo, 2006. "Geometric Brownian Motion and structural breaks in oil prices: A quantitative analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 506-522, July.
    7. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    8. Yu, Jialin, 2007. "Closed-form likelihood approximation and estimation of jump-diffusions with an application to the realignment risk of the Chinese Yuan," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1245-1280, December.
    9. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    11. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
    12. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hamidreza Mostafaei & Ali Akbar Rahimzadeh Sani & Samira Askari, 2013. "A Methodology for the Choice of the Best Fitting Continuous-Time Stochastic Models of Crude Oil Price: The Case of Russia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 137-142.

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