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The impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect


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  • Zhang, Xiaolong
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Production Economics.

    Volume (Year): 88 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 15-27

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:88:y:2004:i:1:p:15-27

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    1. Stephen C. Graves, 1999. "A Single-Item Inventory Model for a Nonstationary Demand Process," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 50-61.
    2. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-79, September.
    3. G. D. Johnson & H. E. Thompson, 1975. "Optimality of Myopic Inventory Policies for Certain Dependent Demand Processes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(11), pages 1303-1307, July.
    4. Hau L. Lee & Kut C. So & Christopher S. Tang, 2000. "The Value of Information Sharing in a Two-Level Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(5), pages 626-643, May.
    5. Alan S. Blinder, 1984. "Can The Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?," NBER Working Papers 1257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Samuel Karlin, 1960. "Dynamic Inventory Policy with Varying Stochastic Demands," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 231-258, April.
    7. Hau L. Lee & V. Padmanabhan & Seungjin Whang, 1997. "Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(4), pages 546-558, April.
    8. Frank Chen & Zvi Drezner & Jennifer K. Ryan & David Simchi-Levi, 2000. "Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain: The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 436-443, March.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1982. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 0891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. Agrawal, Sunil & Sengupta, Raghu Nandan & Shanker, Kripa, 2009. "Impact of information sharing and lead time on bullwhip effect and on-hand inventory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 576-593, January.
    2. Ton Hien Duc, Truong & Luong, Huynh Trung & Kim, Yeong-Dae, 2010. "Effect of the third-party warehouse on bullwhip effect and inventory cost in supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 395-407, April.
    3. Adenso-Díaz, Belarmino & Moreno, Plácido & Gutiérrez, Ester & Lozano, Sebastián, 2012. "An analysis of the main factors affecting bullwhip in reverse supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 917-928.
    4. Grigoriev Alexander & Hiller Benjamin & Marbán Sebastián & Vredeveld Tjark & Zwaan Ruben van der, 2010. "Dynamic Pricing Problems with Elastic Demand," Research Memorandum 053, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    5. Kunnumkal, Sumit & Topaloglu, Huseyin, 2008. "Price discounts in exchange for reduced customer demand variability and applications to advance demand information acquisition," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 543-561, February.
    6. Ciancimino, Elena & Cannella, Salvatore & Bruccoleri, Manfredi & Framinan, Jose M., 2012. "On the Bullwhip Avoidance Phase: The Synchronised Supply Chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 49-63.
    7. Kamath, Narasimha B. & Roy, Rahul, 2007. "Capacity augmentation of a supply chain for a short lifecycle product: A system dynamics framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(2), pages 334-351, June.
    8. Bayraktar, Erkan & Lenny Koh, S.C. & Gunasekaran, A. & Sari, Kazim & Tatoglu, Ekrem, 2008. "The role of forecasting on bullwhip effect for E-SCM applications," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 193-204, May.
    9. Kristianto, Yohanes & Helo, Petri & Jiao, Jianxin (Roger) & Sandhu, Maqsood, 2012. "Adaptive fuzzy vendor managed inventory control for mitigating the Bullwhip effect in supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 346-355.
    10. Hosoda, Takamichi & Disney, Stephen M., 2006. "On variance amplification in a three-echelon supply chain with minimum mean square error forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 344-358, August.
    11. Thomassey, Sébastien, 2010. "Sales forecasts in clothing industry: The key success factor of the supply chain management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 470-483, December.
    12. Tang, Christopher S., 2006. "Perspectives in supply chain risk management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 451-488, October.
    13. Miragliotta, Giovanni, 2006. "Layers and mechanisms: A new taxonomy for the Bullwhip Effect," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 365-381, December.
    14. Hosoda, Takamichi & Disney, Stephen M., 2009. "Impact of market demand mis-specification on a two-level supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 739-751, October.
    15. Zbigniew Michna & Peter Nielsen, 2013. "The impact of lead time forecasting on the bullwhip effect," Papers 1309.7374,, revised Jun 2014.
    16. Aggelogiannaki, Eleni & Sarimveis, Haralambos, 2008. "Design of a novel adaptive inventory control system based on the online identification of lead time," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 781-792, August.
    17. Boute, Robert N. & Disney, Stephen M. & Lambrecht, Marc R. & Houdt, Benny Van, 2014. "Coordinating lead times and safety stocks under autocorrelated demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 52-63.
    18. Zhang, Xiaolong & Burke, Gerard J., 2011. "Analysis of compound bullwhip effect causes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 514-526, May.
    19. Nepal, Bimal & Murat, Alper & Babu Chinnam, Ratna, 2012. "The bullwhip effect in capacitated supply chains with consideration for product life-cycle aspects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 318-331.
    20. Ali, Mohammad M. & Boylan, John E. & Syntetos, Aris A., 2012. "Forecast errors and inventory performance under forecast information sharing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 830-841.
    21. Chatfield, Dean C. & Pritchard, Alan M., 2013. "Returns and the bullwhip effect," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 159-175.
    22. Wu, Y. & Zhang, D.Z., 2007. "Demand fluctuation and chaotic behaviour by interaction between customers and suppliers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 250-259, May.
    23. Bivin, David, 2013. "Production chains and aggregate output volatility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 807-816.


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