Negative default dependence in supplier networks
AbstractThe financial defaults of suppliers in a supplier network are significant risks and causes of uncertainty for buying firms. Hitherto, it has been largely neglected that default probabilities of suppliers in supplier networks are not independent of each other. We aim to overcome this shortcoming by studying negative supplier default dependencies: situations where a surviving supplier may benefit from the default of another supplier, resulting in a lower default probability. We use empirical data from the automotive supplier industry and copula functions, a method of representing joint distribution functions with particular marginals, to capture the default dependency between automotive suppliers and simulate various scenarios with negative default dependency. We also conduct a comparative static analysis illustrating the significant impact of negative default dependence. Our findings should spur managers to analyze their supplier networks with respect to default dependencies, and to take this phenomenon into consideration when making sourcing decisions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Production Economics.
Volume (Year): 134 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpe
Supplier default Supplier network Default dependence Negative default correlation Copula function Dependence measure Monte Carlo simulation;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Berger, Paul D. & Gerstenfeld, Arthur & Zeng, Amy Z., 2004. "How many suppliers are best? A decision-analysis approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 9-15, February.
- Robert Swinney & Serguei Netessine, 2009. "Long-Term Contracts Under the Threat of Supplier Default," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 109-127, September.
- Brian Tomlin, 2006. "On the Value of Mitigation and Contingency Strategies for Managing Supply Chain Disruption Risks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 639-657, May.
- Vaagen, Hajnalka & Wallace, Stein W., 2008. "Product variety arising from hedging in the fashion supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 431-455, August.
- Houweling, Patrick & Hoek, Jaap & Kleibergen, Frank, 2001.
"The joint estimation of term structures and credit spreads,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 297-323, July.
- Houweling, P. & Hoek, J. & Kleibergen, F.R., 1999. "The Joint Estimation of Term Structures and Credit Spreads," Econometric Institute Report EI 9916-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
- Patrick Houweling & Jaap Hoek & Frank Kleibergen, 1999. "The Joint Estimation of Term Structures and Credit Spreads," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-027/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Giesecke, Kay, 2004. "Correlated default with incomplete information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1521-1545, July.
- Ian Cooper & Marcel Martin, 1996. "Default risk and derivative products," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 53-70.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006.
"Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated,"
NBER Working Papers
11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1994.
"Estimating and Interpreting Foreward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994,"
579, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994," IMF Working Papers 94/114, International Monetary Fund.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
- Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "An Analysis of Default Correlations and Multiple Defaults," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 555-76.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Houweling, Patrick & Vorst, Ton, 2005.
"Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1200-1225, December.
- Arnt-Gunnar Lium & Teodor Gabriel Crainic & Stein W. Wallace, 2007. "Correlations In Stochastic Programming: A Case From Stochastic Service Network Design," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(02), pages 161-179.
- Ruiz-Torres, Alex J. & Mahmoodi, Farzad, 2007. "The optimal number of suppliers considering the costs of individual supplier failures," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 104-115, February.
- Volodymyr Babich & Apostolos N. Burnetas & Peter H. Ritchken, 2007. "Competition and Diversification Effects in Supply Chains with Supplier Default Risk," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 123-146, October.
- Paul Embrechts, 2009. "Copulas: A Personal View," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 639-650.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.