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Stochastic nature of earthquake ground motion

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  • Kostić, Srđan
  • Vasović, Nebojša
  • Perc, Matjaž
  • Toljić, Marinko
  • Nikolić, Dobrica

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the irregular behavior of earthquake ground motion as recorded during the Kraljevo M5.4 earthquake, which occurred on November 3rd, 2010 in Serbia. We perform the analysis for the ground accelerations recorded at 6 seismological stations: Grua, Ruda, Rada, Bara, Zaga and Bdva. The latter were carefully chosen based on their corresponding tectonic zone and the local geological setting. For each station, we analyze the horizontal component of the ground acceleration in the north–south direction, which is the one of primary interest for engineering design. We employ surrogate data testing and methods of nonlinear time series analysis. The obtained results indicate that strong ground accelerations are stochastic, in particular belonging to a class of linear stationary stochastic processes with Gaussian inputs or distorted by a monotonic, instantaneous, time-independent nonlinear function. This type of motion is detected regardless of the corresponding tectonic setting and the local geological conditions. The revealed stochastic nature is in disagreement with the frequently assumed deterministically chaotic nature of earthquake ground motion.

Suggested Citation

  • Kostić, Srđan & Vasović, Nebojša & Perc, Matjaž & Toljić, Marinko & Nikolić, Dobrica, 2013. "Stochastic nature of earthquake ground motion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(18), pages 4134-4145.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:18:p:4134-4145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.04.045
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kugiumtzis, Dimitris & Tsimpiris, Alkiviadis, 2010. "Measures of Analysis of Time Series (MATS): A MATLAB Toolkit for Computation of Multiple Measures on Time Series Data Bases," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i05).
    2. Stanley, H.E. & Buldyrev, S.V. & Franzese, G. & Havlin, S. & Mallamace, F. & Kumar, P. & Plerou, V. & Preis, T., 2010. "Correlated randomness and switching phenomena," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(15), pages 2880-2893.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kostić, Srđan & Stojković, Milan & Guranov, Iva & Vasović, Nebojša, 2019. "Revealing the background of groundwater level dynamics: Contributing factors, complex modeling and engineering applications," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 408-421.
    2. Dejana Jakovljević & Zagorka Lozanov-Crvenković, 2015. "Water quality changes after Kraljevo earthquake in 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 2033-2053, December.
    3. Srđan Kostić & Matjaž Perc & Nebojša Vasović & Slobodan Trajković, 2013. "Predictions of Experimentally Observed Stochastic Ground Vibrations Induced by Blasting," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Sotiris Alevizos & Thomas Poulet & Manolis Veveakis & Klaus Regenauer-Lieb, 2016. "Analysis of Dynamics in Multiphysics Modelling of Active Faults," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-14, September.
    5. Pelap, F.B. & Kagho, L.Y. & Fogang, C.F., 2016. "Chaotic behavior of earthquakes induced by a nonlinear magma up flow," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 71-83.
    6. Gkarlaouni, Charikleia & Lasocki, Stanislaw & Papadimitriou, Eleftheria & George, Tsaklidis, 2017. "Hurst analysis of seismicity in Corinth rift and Mygdonia graben (Greece)," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 30-42.

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