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A measure of multivariate kurtosis for the identification of the dynamics of a N-dimensional market

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  • Araújo, Tanya
  • Dias, João
  • Eleutério, Samuel
  • Louçã, Francisco
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the common intuition suggesting that during crises the shape of the financial market clearly differentiates from that of random walk processes. In this sense, it challenges the traditional analysis of the nature of financial markets implicit in the most popular models. For this, a geometric approach is proposed in order to define the patterns of change of the market and a measure of multivariate kurtosis is used in order to test deviations from multinormality. The statistical difficulties of this approach are discussed and a new solution is proposed to the consideration of a large space of variables in an accurate measurement of the dynamics of the market. The emergence of crises can be measured in this framework, using all the available information about the returns of the stocks under consideration and not only a single index representing the market.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 392 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 17 ()
    Pages: 3708-3714

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:17:p:3708-3714

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    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

    Related research

    Keywords: Multivariate kurtosis; Market crises; Stochastic geometry; Efficient market hypothesis;

    References

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    1. Tanya Araujo & Francisco Louca, 2007. "The geometry of crashes. A measure of the dynamics of stock market crises," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 63-74.
    2. Rosario N. Mantegna, 1998. "Hierarchical Structure in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/9802256, arXiv.org.
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    4. Srivastava, M. S., 1984. "A measure of skewness and kurtosis and a graphical method for assessing multivariate normality," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(5), pages 263-267, October.
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    15. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2009. "Finite sample multivariate tests of asset pricing models with coskewness," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2008-2021, April.
    16. Szekely, Gábor J. & Rizzo, Maria L., 2005. "A new test for multivariate normality," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 58-80, March.
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    18. Marie-Claude Beaulieu & Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf, 2005. "Exact Multivariate Tests of Asset Pricing Models with Stable Asymmetric Distributions," CIRANO Working Papers 2005s-03, CIRANO.
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    Cited by:
    1. Araújo, Tanya & Spelta, Alessandro, 2014. "Structural changes in cross-border liabilities: A multidimensional approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 277-287.

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