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The sample autocorrelation function and the detection of long-memory processes

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  • Hassani, Hossein
  • Leonenko, Nikolai
  • Patterson, Kerry

Abstract

The detection of long-range dependence in time series analysis is an important task to which this paper contributes by showing that whilst the theoretical definition of a long-memory (or long-range dependent) process is based on the autocorrelation function, it is not possible for long memory to be identified using the sum of the sample autocorrelations, as usually defined. The reason for this is that the sample sum is a predetermined constant for any stationary time series; a result that is independent of the sample size. Diagnostic or estimation procedures, such as those in the frequency domain, that embed this sum are equally open to this criticism. We develop this result in the context of long memory, extending it to the implications for the spectral density function and the variance of partial sums of a stationary stochastic process. The results are further extended to higher order sample autocorrelations and the bispectral density. The corresponding result is that the sum of the third order sample (auto) bicorrelations at lags h,k≥1, is also a predetermined constant, different from that in the second order case, for any stationary time series of arbitrary length.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassani, Hossein & Leonenko, Nikolai & Patterson, Kerry, 2012. "The sample autocorrelation function and the detection of long-memory processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(24), pages 6367-6379.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:391:y:2012:i:24:p:6367-6379
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2012.07.062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva, 2015. "A Kolmogorov-Smirnov Based Test for Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Two Sets of Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Yiannis Contoyiannis & Stavros G. Stavrinides & Michael P. Hanias & Myron Kampitakis & Pericles Papadopoulos & Rodrigo Picos & Stelios M. Potirakis, 2020. "A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Hassani, Hossein & Yeganegi, Mohammad Reza, 2020. "Selecting optimal lag order in Ljung–Box test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    4. Hassani, Hossein & Yeganegi, Mohammad Reza, 2019. "Sum of squared ACF and the Ljung–Box statistics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 520(C), pages 81-86.

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