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Pinkness of the North Atlantic Oscillation signal revisited

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  • Fernández, Isabel
  • Pacheco, José M.
  • Quintana, María P.

Abstract

The long episode of negative values in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during the winter season 2009–2010 has attracted more attention to its predictability. Previous analyses (Fernández et al. (2003) [16] and Caldeira et al. (2007) [25]) by this same author group have established that the NAO signal behaves as a slightly red noise and therefore the prediction of the phenomenon must rely upon a deeper understanding of the underlying Physics. In this paper the authors address a predictability study of the NAO index by applying the “detrended fluctuation analysis” (DFA) to a composite series, completed with a bootstrap spectral analysis. The DFA provides a quantitative measure of predictability by computing several piecewise fits, either linear or higher degree polynomial ones, to a cumulative series of fluctuations associated to the original series. These newer measurements agree with the previous results.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández, Isabel & Pacheco, José M. & Quintana, María P., 2010. "Pinkness of the North Atlantic Oscillation signal revisited," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(24), pages 5801-5807.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:24:p:5801-5807
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2010.08.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Weron, Rafał, 2002. "Estimating long-range dependence: finite sample properties and confidence intervals," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(1), pages 285-299.
    2. Bunde, Armin & Havlin, Shlomo & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Schellnhuber, Hans-Joachim, 2001. "Long term persistence in the atmosphere: global laws and tests of climate models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 302(1), pages 255-267.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fu, Zuntao & Shi, Liu & Xie, Fenghua & Piao, Lin, 2016. "Nonlinear features of Northern Annular Mode variability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 390-394.

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