IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v388y2009i17p3563-3571.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new indicator of imminent occurrence of drawdown in the stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel
  • Yoneyama, Takashi

Abstract

The crashes in financial markets have caught the attention of many researchers since 1929 and several mathematical models have been proposed to try to forecast the occurrence of these events. The main idea in this work is to use a wavelet transform to detect imminent abrupt changes in a financial time series, which may be eventually related to the possibility of a crash. Case studies are conducted using wavelet approaches with data covering pre-crash and post-crash 1929, as well as more recent Hang Seng and IBOVESPA data. The financial crisis of 2008 also is analyzed using this method. These time series provide useful insights into the behavior of wavelet coefficients under the possibility of short term crashes in stock market. However, it is not a trivial task to infer an imminent drawdown by simply examining the pattern of the wavelet transform coefficients. Hence, an index (a real number between 0 and 1) is proposed to aggregate the information provided by the wavelet coefficients. The new index presented good capability of monitoring crashes and drawdown with small error margins, at least in the studied cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel & Yoneyama, Takashi, 2009. "A new indicator of imminent occurrence of drawdown in the stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(17), pages 3563-3571.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:388:y:2009:i:17:p:3563-3571
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.05.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437109003859
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2009.05.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N, 1994. "Was the Crash of 1929 Expected?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 271-281, March.
    2. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N., 1993. "Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 549-574, September.
    3. Johansen, Anders, 2003. "Characterization of large price variations in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 157-166.
    4. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
    5. White, Eugene N, 1990. "The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 67-83, Spring.
    6. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1998. "A hierarchical model of financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 581-598.
    7. Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2001. "Bubbles And Anti-Bubbles In Latin-American, Asian And Western Stock Markets: An Empirical Study," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(06), pages 853-920.
    8. Karl Brunner & Allan H. Meltzer, 1968. "What Did We Learn from the Monetary Experience of the United States in the Great Depression?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 1(2), pages 334-348, May.
    9. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-255, January.
    10. Johansen, Anders & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 465-502.
    11. Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel & Yoneyama, Takashi, 2007. "Characterizing abrupt changes in the stock prices using a wavelet decomposition method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(2), pages 519-526.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel & Yoneyama, Takashi, 2012. "A method for detection of abrupt changes in the financial market combining wavelet decomposition and correlation graphs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4877-4882.
    2. Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel & Yoneyama, Takashi, 2015. "Boolean network representation of contagion dynamics during a financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 1-6.
    3. Jia Zhai & Yi Cao & Xuemei Ding, 2018. "Data analytic approach for manipulation detection in stock market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 897-932, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel & Yoneyama, Takashi, 2012. "A method for detection of abrupt changes in the financial market combining wavelet decomposition and correlation graphs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4877-4882.
    2. Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel & Yoneyama, Takashi, 2015. "Boolean network representation of contagion dynamics during a financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 1-6.
    3. Gee Kwang Randolph Tan & Xiao Qin, 2005. "Bubbles, Can We Spot Them? Crashes, Can We Predict Them?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 206, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Charles W. Calomiris, 1993. "Financial Factors in the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-85, Spring.
    5. Robert F. Bruner & Scott C. Miller, 2019. "The Great Crash of 1929: A Look Back After 90 Years," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 31(4), pages 43-58, December.
    6. Alexey Fomin & Andrey Korotayev & Julia Zinkina, 2016. "Negative oil price bubble is likely to burst in March - May 2016. A forecast on the basis of the law of log-periodical dynamics," Papers 1601.04341, arXiv.org.
    7. Askar Akaev & Andrey Korotayev, 2016. "Global economic dynamics of the forthcoming years. A forecast," Papers 1612.09189, arXiv.org.
    8. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    9. Akaev, Askar A. (Акаев, Аскар А.) & Korotayev, Andrey V (Коротаев, Андрей В.), 2017. "Toward Forecasting Global Economic Dynamics of the Forthcoming Years [К Прогнозированию Глобальной Экономической Динамики Ближайших Лет]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 8-39, February.
    10. Askar Akaev & Alexei Fomin & Andrey Korotayev, 2011. "The Second Wave of the Global Crisis? A Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis of Commodity Price Series," Papers 1107.0480, arXiv.org.
    11. Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "A finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the US equity market: Will the US equity market eventually collapse?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Vandita Dar & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2022. "Deconstruction of the Green Bubble during COVID-19 International Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," NBER Working Papers 24154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
    15. Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2003. "The US 2000-2002 market descent: clarification," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 39-41.
    16. Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016. "LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
    17. John R. Conlon, 2015. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles? Some Microeconomic Issues," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(582), pages 141-161, February.
    18. Askar Akaev & Andrey Korotayev & Alexey Fomin, 2012. "Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts," Papers 1207.4069, arXiv.org.
    19. Quinn, William & Turner, John D., 2020. "Bubbles in history," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2020-07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    20. Sriya Anbil & Mark A. Carlson & Christopher Hanes & David C. Wheelock, 2020. "A New Daily Federal Funds Rate Series and History of the Federal Funds Market, 1928-1954," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:388:y:2009:i:17:p:3563-3571. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.