Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic
AbstractWithin the standard SIR model with spatial structure, we propose two models for the superspreader. In one model, superspreaders have intrinsically strong infectiousness. In other model, they have many social connections. By Monte Carlo simulation, we obtain the percolation probability, the propagation speed, the epidemic curve, the distribution of secondary infected and the propagation path as functions of population and the density of superspreaders. By comparing the results with the data of SARS in Singapore 2003, we conclude that the latter model can explain the observation.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.
Volume (Year): 374 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/
SARS; Superspreader; SIR model; Epidemic model;
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- Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2010. "Discovering network behind infectious disease outbreak," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4755-4768.
- Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2011. "Discovery of a missing disease spreader," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3412-3426.
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