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Are global terrorist attacks time-correlated?

Author

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  • Telesca, Luciano
  • Lovallo, Michele

Abstract

Is there any kind of “memory” in the sequence of terror attacks worldwide? Are the terrorist attacks non-randomly time distributed? Our analysis suggests that they are correlated, which means that a terror event is not independent from the time elapsed since the previous event. But, if we consider terror attacks with a large severity index (number of fatalities or injured), the phenomenon is unpredictable, since it approaches a Poisson process (random, independent and uncorrelated).

Suggested Citation

  • Telesca, Luciano & Lovallo, Michele, 2006. "Are global terrorist attacks time-correlated?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 362(2), pages 480-484.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:362:y:2006:i:2:p:480-484
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.08.030
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alvarez-Ramirez Jose & Rodriguez Eduardo & Tyrtania Leonardo & Urrea-Garcìa Galo R, 2010. "Regime-Transitions in the 2003-2010 Iraq War: An Approach Based on Correlations of Daily Fatalities," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-41, December.
    2. Yuan, Ying & Zhuang, Xin-tian & Liu, Zhi-ying & Huang, Wei-qiang, 2012. "Time-clustering behavior of sharp fluctuation sequences in Chinese stock markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 838-845.
    3. Vallois, Pierre & Tapiero, Charles S., 2007. "Memory-based persistence in a counting random walk process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 386(1), pages 303-317.
    4. Vallois, Pierre & Tapiero, Charles S., 2009. "A claims persistence process and insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 367-373, June.
    5. Kjell Hausken & Jun Zhuang, 2011. "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 46-70, March.
    6. Telesca, Luciano & Song, Weiguo, 2011. "Time-scaling properties of city fires," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 558-568.
    7. Eftaxias, Konstantinos & Minadakis, George & Potirakis, Stelios. M. & Balasis, Georgios, 2013. "Dynamical analogy between epileptic seizures and seismogenic electromagnetic emissions by means of nonextensive statistical mechanics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(3), pages 497-509.
    8. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Ibarra-Valdez, C. & Rodriguez, E. & Urrea, R., 2007. "Fractality and time correlation in contemporary war," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1039-1049.
    9. Li, Ben-xian & Zhu, Jun-fang & Wang, Shun-guo, 2015. "Networks model of the East Turkistan terrorism," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 479-486.
    10. Lambiotte, R. & Ausloos, M. & Thelwall, M., 2007. "Word statistics in Blogs and RSS feeds: Towards empirical universal evidence," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 277-286.
    11. Yuan, Ying & Zhuang, Xin-tian & Liu, Zhi-ying & Huang, Wei-qiang, 2014. "Analysis of the temporal properties of price shock sequences in crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 235-246.

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