Estimating long-range dependence: finite sample properties and confidence intervals
Abstract
A major issue in financial economics is the behavior of asset returns over long horizons. Various estimators of long-range dependence have been proposed. Even though some have known asymptotic properties, it is important to test their accuracy by using simulated series of different lengths. We test R/S analysis, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and periodogram regression methods on samples drawn from Gaussian white noise. The DFA statistics turns out to be the unanimous winner. Unfortunately, no asymptotic distribution theory has been derived for this statistics so far. We were able, however, to construct empirical (i.e. approximate) confidence intervals for all three methods. The obtained values differ largely from heuristic values proposed by some authors for the R/S statistics and are very close to asymptotic values for the periodogram regression method.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.
Volume (Year): 312 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 285-299
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Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/
Related research
Keywords: Long-range dependence; Hurst exponent; R/S analysis; Detrended Fluctuation Analysis; Periodogram regression; Confidence interval;Other versions of this item:
- Rafal Weron, 2001. "Estimating long range dependence: finite sample properties and confidence intervals," HSC Research Reports HSC/01/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Barunik, Jozef & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2010.
"On Hurst exponent estimation under heavy-tailed distributions,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3844-3855.
- Jozef Barunik & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2012. "On Hurst exponent estimation under heavy-tailed distributions," Papers 1201.4786, arXiv.org.
- Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2009. "Distinguishing between short and long range dependence: Finite sample properties of rescaled range and modified rescaled range," MPRA Paper 16424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ladislav Kristoufek & Miloslav Vosvrda, 2012.
"Measuring capital market efficiency: Global and local correlations structure,"
Papers
1208.1298, arXiv.org.
- Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2013. "Measuring capital market efficiency: Global and local correlations structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(1), pages 184-193.
- Ladislav Kristoufek, 2012.
"How are rescaled range analyses affected by different memory and distributional properties? A Monte Carlo study,"
Papers
1201.3511, arXiv.org.
- Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2012. "How are rescaled range analyses affected by different memory and distributional properties? A Monte Carlo study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(17), pages 4252-4260.
- Ladislav Krištoufek, 2010. "Long-Term Memory and Its Evolution in Returns of Stock Index PX Between 1997 and 2009," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(4), pages 471-487.
- Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2009. "R/S analysis and DFA: finite sample properties and confidence intervals," MPRA Paper 16446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2009. "Does financial market liberalization increase the degree of market efficiency? The case of the Athens stock exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 50-57, March.
- Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2009.
"Procesy s dlouhou pamětí a jejich vývoj ve výnosech indexu PX v letech 1999 – 2009
[Long-term memory and its evolution in returns of PX between 1999 and 2009]," MPRA Paper 16435, University Library of Munich, Germany. - Rafal Weron, 2001. "Measuring long-range dependence in electricity prices," Papers cond-mat/0103621, arXiv.org.
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