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Robust policymaking in the face of sudden stops

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  • Young, Eric R.

Abstract

This paper considers tax policies to deal with Sudden Stops – declines in aggregate activity that are magnified by a binding collateral constraint – that occasionally occur in emerging market economies. Households and/or the government are assumed to face model uncertainty and desire robustness against alternative models. Welfare gains from optimal taxation are small if the government trusts its model of household expectations, whether those expectations are altered by model uncertainty or not; in contrast, welfare losses are large if the government is uncertain about the household's probability model.

Suggested Citation

  • Young, Eric R., 2012. "Robust policymaking in the face of sudden stops," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 512-527.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:59:y:2012:i:5:p:512-527
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.05.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Robust control, informational frictions, and international consumption correlations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-27.
    2. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 289-314.
    3. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2012. "Sovereign default risk and uncertainty premia," Working Papers 12-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Bassanin, Marzio & Faia, Ester & Patella, Valeria, 2021. "Ambiguity attitudes and the leverage cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Federico Bennett & Giselle Montamat & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Robust Optimal Macroprudential Policy," Working Papers 141, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    7. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2015. "Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia," Papers 1512.06960, arXiv.org.
    8. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric, 2017. "Robustness, Low Risk-Free Rates, and Consumption Volatility in General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 80046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric Young, 2015. "Robust permanent income in general equilibrium," Research Working Paper RWP 15-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    10. Bennett, Federico & Montamat, Giselle & Roch, Francisco, 2023. "Robust optimal macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2016. "Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 230-266, July.

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