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The term structure of policy rules

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Author Info

  • Smith, Josephine M.
  • Taylor, John B.

Abstract

A formula is derived that links the coefficients of the monetary policy rule for the short-term interest rate to the coefficients of the implied affine equations for long-term interest rates. The formula predicts that an increase in the coefficients in the monetary policy rule will lead to an increase in the coefficients in the affine equations. Empirical evidence for such a prediction is provided. The curve of the response coefficients by maturity is also predicted by the formula. The formula's predictive accuracy and its closed form make it a useful tool for studying the policy implications of embedding no-arbitrage affine theories into macro models.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 56 (2009)
Issue (Month): 7 (October)
Pages: 907-917

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:7:p:907-917

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

Related research

Keywords: Affine models No arbitrage Monetary policy rules Term structure of interest rates;

References

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  1. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 11874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco J. Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-free bond pricing with dynamic macroeconomic models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 305-326.
  3. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
  4. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, 02.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  6. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  7. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory," NBER Working Papers 11212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong, 2005. "No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules," 2005 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 395-422, 03.
  12. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1996. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1183-1209, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
  2. Jagjit S Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," BIS Working Papers 415, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Joslin, Scott & Le, Anh & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2013. "Why Gaussian macro-finance term structure models are (nearly) unconstrained factor-VARs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 604-622.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," NBER Working Papers 20070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Identifying Taylor Rules in Macro-Finance Models," NBER Working Papers 19360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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