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The welfare costs of expected and unexpected inflation

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  • Faig, Miquel
  • Li, Zhe

Abstract

The monetary search model by Lagos and Wright (2005) is extended with imperfect information about nominal shocks as in Lucas (1972). An analytical solution exists with logarithmic preferences. In general, individuals hold precautionary balances. Calibrated to United States postwar data, the welfare cost of the monetary cycle is calculated to be small (below 0.0003% of GDP) compared to the welfare cost of the inflation tax (around 0.25% of GDP). The main reason for the minute welfare cost of the monetary cycle is its low amplitude in 1947-2007. But, monetary crashes, such as those experienced during the Great Depression, can generate important welfare costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Faig, Miquel & Li, Zhe, 2009. "The welfare costs of expected and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1004-1013, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:7:p:1004-1013
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    1. Arman Mansoorian & Leo Michelis, 2016. "Measuring the contribution of durable goods to the welfare cost of inflation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(2), pages 815-833, May.
    2. Tsz-Nga Wong & Pierre-Olivier Weill & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2015. "Long-Run and Short-Run Effects of Money Injections," 2015 Meeting Papers 793, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Wang, Liang, 2016. "Endogenous search, price dispersion, and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 94-117.
    4. Williamson, Stephen & Wright, Randall, 2010. "New Monetarist Economics: Models," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 25-96, Elsevier.
    5. Guillaume Rocheteau & Pierre-Olivier Weill & Tsz-Nga Wong, 2015. "Working through the Distribution: Money in the Short and Long Run," NBER Working Papers 21779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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