Exchange rates and casualties during the first world war
AbstractI estimate a single factor model of Swiss exchange rates during World War I for five of the primary belligerents: Britain, France, Italy, Germany, and Austria-Hungary. At the outbreak of the war these nations suspended convertibility of their currencies into gold with the promise that after the war each would restore convertibility at the old par. However, once convertibility was suspended, each currency became a state-contingent claim; after the war it would pay off at (or near) the old par if the country won or pay off significantly less than par (perhaps nothing) if the country lost. The single factor extracted from the five exchange rates appears to contain information on contemporaries' expectations about the war's outcome. Innovations to the single factor are correlated with time series on soldiers killed and wounded and soldiers taken prisoner.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.
Volume (Year): 51 (2004)
Issue (Month): 8 (November)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566
Other versions of this item:
- George J. Hall, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Casualties During the First World War," NBER Working Papers 9261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George J. Hall, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Casualties During the First World War," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1321, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
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