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Migration costs and observational returns to migration in the developing world

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  • Lagakos, David
  • Marshall, Samuel
  • Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq
  • Vernot, Corey
  • Waugh, Michael E.

Abstract

Recent studies find that observational returns to rural-urban migration are near zero in three developing countries. We revisit this result using panel tracking surveys from six countries, finding higher returns on average. We then interpret these returns in a multi-region Roy model with heterogeneity in migration costs. In the model, the observational return to migration confounds the urban premium and the individual benefits of migrants, and is not directly informative about the welfare gain from lowering migration costs. Patterns of regional heterogeneity in returns, and a comparison of experimental to observational returns, are consistent with the model’s predictions.

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  • Lagakos, David & Marshall, Samuel & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq & Vernot, Corey & Waugh, Michael E., 2020. "Migration costs and observational returns to migration in the developing world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 138-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:113:y:2020:i:c:p:138-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.03.013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Selod, Harris & Shilpi, Forhad, 2021. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries: Lessons from the literature," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Fassil Eshetu & Jema Haji & Mengistu Ketema & Abule Mehare, 2023. "Impact of Rural Out-Migration on Vulnerability to Rural Multidimensional Poverty in Southern Ethiopia," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 1175-1209, September.
    4. De Weerdt,Joachim & Christiaensen,Luc & Kanbur,Ravi, 2021. "When Distance Drives Destination, Towns Can Stimulate Development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9622, The World Bank.
    5. Tasso Adamopoulos & Loren Brandt & Chaoran Chen & Diego Restuccia & Xiaoyun Wei, 2022. "Land Security and Mobility Frictions," Working Papers tecipa-717, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    6. Mckenzie,David J., 2022. "Fears and Tears : Should More People Be Moving within and from Developing Countries, andWhat Stops This Movement ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10128, The World Bank.
    7. Qingen Gai & Naijia Guo & Bingjing Li & Qinghua Shi & Xiaodong Zhu, 2021. "Migration Costs, Sorting, and the Agricultural Productivity Gap," Working Papers tecipa-693, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    8. Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq & Sharif, Iffath & Shrestha, Maheshwor, 2021. "Returns to International Migration: Evidence from a Bangladesh-Malaysia Visa Lottery," IZA Discussion Papers 14232, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Zhang, Li & Xie, Lunyu & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "Across a few prohibitive miles: The impact of the Anti-Poverty Relocation Program in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. Valerie Mueller & Camila Páez-Bernal & Clark Gray & Karen Grépin, 2023. "The Gendered Consequences of COVID-19 for Internal Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(4), pages 1-37, August.
    11. Melissa Hidrobo & Valerie Mueller & Shalini Roy, 2022. "Cash transfers, migration, and gender norms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 550-568, March.
    12. Maria Caridad Araujo & Karen Macours, 2021. "Education, Income and Mobility: Experimental Impacts of Childhood Exposure to Progresa after 20 Years," PSE Working Papers halshs-03364972, HAL.
    13. Tushar Bharati & Wina Yoman, 2021. "Internal Migration and Labor Market Outcomes in Indonesia," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 21-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    14. Cirillo, Marinella & Cattaneo, Andrea & Miller, Meghan & Sadiddin, Ahmad, 2022. "Establishing the link between internal and international migration: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rural-urban migration; Observational returns to migration; Migration costs; Rural-urban gaps; Gains from lowering migration costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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