The suitability of a monetary union in East Asia: What does the cointegration approach tell?
AbstractThe issue of whether or not to form a monetary union in East Asia remains a hot issue in the study of the East Asian economies. Most of the existing studies apply a framework focusing on the symmetric issue of the fundamental shocks and the extent of correlations by applying the Blanchard and Quah [O.J. Blanchard, D. Quah, The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances, American Economic Review 79 (1989) 655–673] structural vector autoregression (VAR) technique, which includes first-differenced variables in the model and examines only the bilateral relationships. However, the shock symmetry does not necessarily require the co-movements of the real output variables between the countries concerned. The present paper employs the Johansen [S. Johansen, Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12 (1988) 231–254] cointegration approach to check the long-run co-movements of real outputs among the East Asian countries, Japan and the United States to draw some implications about forming a monetary union in the region. The results suggest that some groups of Asian NIEs plus the United States will be potential candidates to form a monetary union. Mainland China is not suggested as a member country of a monetary union with any of the grouped economies. More interestingly, the ASEAN countries alone are not a feasible group to form a monetary union unless Japan is included, which has important implications for the role of Japan towards the formation of a regional monetary union.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM).
Volume (Year): 79 (2009)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
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Monetary union; Cointegration; Real output co-movements; East Asia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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